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You have 800 SPX 1 x4 put spreads on?? 4 percent wide?? Your own capital??? C'mon bro....

Lets look at the 323 -310 1x 4 spread.. breakeven on the downside is 310 - 13/4 Lets just say you break even at 307 (which is only 5% down),and then you are naked short 3 puts- whatever hedges you got off... the 310's have Vega of apx .17 at 15 vol..If you believe the market will trade at 10...

Nice work,you have discovered that dollar cost averaging is less dangerous than going all in when taking a 40 percent hickey on the chin... and good luck finding ATM put options trading at 20 percent of spot,then 25% then 33%...

It appears that you do not have a favorable view on Fundamental analysis,yet I noticed in another thread you look at the forward earnings yield curve of the S and P as a barometer for going long??? And what in the world is conventional fundamental anaysis vs non conventional ??? You should...

I think it comes down to the nature of the beast,we being the beast.. Deep down,traders are either fear based or greed based.If you are fear based,then cutting losses is easy,but letting profits go is next to impossible.. If you are greed based,it's easy to put the pedal to the metal,but much...

While I fully agree that selling ATM 1 year S and P vol for Apx 5 percent of Spot is revolting, I think your broker was off base in his assessment of selling puts when he said it.. Chek out Goldman's study,The art of put selling ,a 10 year study... Regardless,the OP wants to limit his...

He answered my questions.. He is obviously risk averse and well aware of it.He could live with a 5 percent drawdown on the full notional.. He's not quite sure what risk reward works for him.. Due to his parameters,it clear he can't sell puts naked. My question was asked to see what his...

On the whole 400k?? And what sort of return would you hope for,I.e. risk 5 percent to make x??? If the market is unchanged in a year coukd you handle being down 2 percent??

Right now the 300 put (94% spot put)trades for 4%..With a 3% pullback and vol unchanged,you could collect 5%..You really want to be short 1 year vol to make 5%??? Not being a jack ass,but there are much better ways to make 5% with alot less risk

Keep it simple....Trade a single index,and you dont have to invest the full 400k First order of business.. What the max amount of pain you can sleep with?? Can you imagine doubling up down 25% or do you want absolute protection below a certain threshold? What return would you be thrilled...

Please point me in the direction of your Situational Analysis thread.. Sounds like a different take on Wyckoff.. FYI,before retiring,I worked at what is now a 38 billion dollar fund... I was very familiar with the multi strategies employed and the various methodolgies/profitabilty.. You speak...

Burry made most of his money from the sub prime mortgage crisis..That's your idea of a bull market??? How would you classify stat arb?? How about monentum?

So momentum and Value investing cant coexist??

Are you for real??? Who said he is never wrong???? You are the one unequivocally stating that his approach is garbage,despite the fact that he is worth over 240 mil.. Buffet is a value investor with close to 550 billion under management..growth has outperformed value by 64% the last 10...

So you are going to question a guys approach who is worth apx 240 mil and deem it to be garbage?? Im guessing you are worth 241 mil plus??

I think Dr Michael Burry offers an interesting perspective.Hard core value guy with a TA background.I think the naysayers are too black and white in their view and would benefit from taking a more holistic view. For me "TA" is a tool,not the grail.. “In futures, I learned a lot about TA. The...

Appreciate it..I was referring to a poster who said he had never seen a put exercised pre ex div..:)

Of course the dividend is reflected in the price of the put,but it will have a greater effect on the ITM option,the option with the higher delta.Keep in mind we are discussing ITM calls with high delta's. As for Puts being exercised,it's pretty clear why the OTM is never exercised.But why...

Save yourself the headache and read what FSU wrote.If you got assigned,you lost the div.The div is the reason you got assigned,and if you would have looked at the price of the put on the corresponding short call line,you would have known you were going to get assigned and lose the div..You got...

Rea Real estate,and specifically buying a home is my "go to" move.... I have buddies who are super successful real estate brokers/developers out on the East End,and their eyes glaze over if we ever talk about options/derivatives,or should I say puts or calls...especially those puts.. I...