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You want the formula,but you don't want it in a B.S. framework...OK,why dont you first tell us how you price double no touch utilising moving averages.. No disrespect,but why are you commenting on something clearly out if your comfort zone.. You are a directional trader, clueless to basic...

Surely you jest.... The correct answer is YOU don't know any formula..I have already spoon fed the answer to you.. It's options 101... You do realize you are in a thread on exotics,you don't know probability of touch,yet you keep on keeping on... Even worse you have no idea how market...

With no opinion on the stock,I would look to the option market to lay off the risk and exploit your bias. Perhaps 20 grand in premium gets me. a 40 k payout if the stock trades at 90... Why would i forget about the derivative market if I can pick you off?? It's market making 101...

I bet you and me can make a market...granted no one will hit our bid or take our offer:)

maybe,but its all you got unless you have built a better mouse trap.. You are restating that option pricing theory is incorrect,or perhaps the skew is not correct... If you are correct,you should be able to profit immensely from that... Im guessing you are a big buyer of tails???

You can simply look at the option chain of a specific instrument and its done for you(assuming you are a quant) You are throwing in extraneous variables which could be true,but has nothing to do with the OP's question..Hes looking at an exotic structure..If what you say is true regarding equal...

Quick correction on you Delta vs prob of touch Probabilty of touch is 2x delta...

The option markets ,I.e skew and all that fun stuff would disagree with your assessment.. Are you familiar with basic option theory and probability of touch??

Are you trying to price a double knockout/no touch?

Can you teach me to divine?? I literally strike out every month,mainly in MSFT

Thats the impression I had,but I only know 2-3 credit guys/gals..

As I said,I was guessing:) I only know 2 credit guys,one the co founder of Marathon..Most of the vol guys I know who left IB and traded OPM blew up

synthetic straddle?.. Lol....thanks bro.. He totally Miyagi-ed me

Sensei,what does 2x1 vol/shares mean in "layman te4ms".... Are you Miyagi-ing me?? Sincerely, Grasshopper Tao :)

I'm guessing vol traders have a shorter IB afterlife than Credit guys...

You answered your own question.... As for IC vs fly,an IC is a bunch of stacked flys.. As an example,look at the 10-15 25-30 IC.. It can be broken down to 3 5 pt flys on top of each other.. 10-15-20 + 15-20-25 + 20-25-30

Do yourself a favor and forget the Greek alphabet for now. If you are asking this question,its too soon. Secondly,its a 2 week option... Look at the 9-14 day ATR/ATR percent..Determine if its high or low... If the option doubles to triples in price with a 1 ATR move,its worth a shot and...

des is a generous dude..My guess is less than 5 % of posters have a clue to what he's talking about.."PPL" should ask questions,otherwise its all for naught

if you tell us the option,i can check the buy write/conversion for you...

for shits ang giggles,quote the buy write(or conversion) and see if it trades mid... Then flip the stock(and put if its the conversion)..