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  1. johnarb

    El Salvador hopes to becomes the world’s first country to adopt bitcoin as legal tender

    This could have US implications on treatment of bitcoin Also, El Salvador may put bitcoin on their reserves This could just be the beginning. Imagine a bigger country following suit Bitcoin sold on the news, so it's possible lots of traders went leveraged long trying to front run the news...
  2. johnarb

    El Salvador hopes to becomes the world’s first country to adopt bitcoin as legal tender

    This could spread in Latin American countries... https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/05/el-salvador-becomes-the-first-country-to-adopt-bitcoin-as-legal-tender-.html El Salvador hopes to becomes the world’s first country to adopt bitcoin as legal tender PUBLISHED SAT, JUN 5 20214:56 PM EDTUPDATED 3...
  3. johnarb

    Bitcoin Options Market in Asia (Synthetic Mining?)

    Did you watch the video? Please review on 29 min mark about the stated IV's and consider the runup they were referring to where IV went to 250 Around 31 min mark, 30-40 delta edit: I don't know if I'm using that options calculator correctly. I have not traded options for over 10 years, just...
  4. johnarb

    Bitcoin Options Market in Asia (Synthetic Mining?)

    The video showed that these Asian players are experienced vol sellers, well capitalized I'm going to play the put seller myself as selling 10 puts when btc was $50,000, strike price $48,000 , IV 120, premium I received was $7600 for a 50 day expiration I'm down $32.2K M2M right now...
  5. johnarb

    Bitcoin Price Thread

    Bitcoin conference 2021 in Miami
  6. johnarb

    Bitcoin Options Market in Asia (Synthetic Mining?)

    Great! I think that's it. Thank you
  7. johnarb

    Bitcoin Options Market in Asia (Synthetic Mining?)

    The issue is no real options on bitcoin as the underlying. Even when CBOE options were available, it was options on cash-settled futures If I can deposit and hold real bitcoins on the exchange, it would be easy to sell a covered call, or a naked put [edit: Deribit won't let me register, but...
  8. johnarb

    Is BTC Reloading?

    Bitcoin and cryptos were on a solid uptrend for a few days now, then 1 Tweet from Elon changed the direction I think it's possible Elon and Tesla are selling their btc holdings and Elon's Tweet today is to reverse previous one when he said "Tesla has not sold any bitcoin" Imho, Tesla being out...
  9. johnarb

    Bitcoin Options Market in Asia (Synthetic Mining?)

    I wish this was possible in the US, but TD Ameritrade or Robinhood don't offer this kind of options market, yet. I would sell bitcoin puts or calls and prefer getting paid the premium in bitcoin as well, but only for a contract that is equal to 1 btc or less Video for reference below, started...
  10. johnarb

    Designing an automated market for crypto options as an exercise: Tips on Black-Scholes?

    I don't think this is possible but it's an interesting post I've done many a yield farming (ie Sushi, YAM, Cream, BNB/Cake, etc) AMM (automated market maker) works well in cryptos dexes, trading pairs, through locked LP's, liquidity pools but to add options (calls/puts) would add complexities...
  11. johnarb

    Crypto: Interesting take on USDT trust and valuation

    Wow, that is crazy! I would like to sell USDC into that frenzy, lol
  12. johnarb

    Crypto: Interesting take on USDT trust and valuation

    USDT has the most number of coins in circulation In theory, USDT and USDC are equal as they are both stablecoins, but in practice, I noticed a wider spread when trading for USDC, especially on a dex and with a bigger amount per trade I also get the feeling that USDC is more closely monitored...
  13. johnarb

    Crypto: Interesting take on USDT trust and valuation

    As I said on my reply to RedDuke, this is not disagreeing with the Twitter thread. Faith is not quantifiable on a unit-by-unit basis. The concept is subjective Let's examine a $100 bill, can you equate that to a certain "faith" % of the US GDP? What happens when they print 20% more USD and the...
  14. johnarb

    Crypto: Interesting take on USDT trust and valuation

    Depends on how you look at it. I think Jim's thread is not in contradiction with what you're alluding to USD is not backed by gold
  15. johnarb

    Crypto: Interesting take on USDT trust and valuation

    "And this is what makes stablecoins so powerful, and worrisome to regulators/TradFi. They are backed by the same thing as the $$$, full faith and credit...of the crypto universe!" "The crypto universe is creating the next reserve currency, a stablecoin. They will accept it 1:1 for the dollar...
  16. johnarb

    "Bitcoin is too volatile to be a store of value"

    It's easy to beat up on bitcoin when it's on a downtrend or in a bear market. It is the reason all naysayers could not get themselves to buy btc when it was $3K or when it was $300 What if you can look ahead instead of this current downtrend? What if you can imagine bitcoin at $100K, $200K or...
  17. johnarb

    Bitcoin Price Thread

    Personal thoughts and plans I bought a bitcoin today, but technically, it's the same bitcoin I sold a week and a half ago I think the bull market is not over, so I'm gonna hold 13 btc's until eoy but if this downtrend turns out to be a multi-year bear market, I'll sell the 3 btc's and hold 10...
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