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Bona fide genius Sir Isaac Newton lost a fortune in the South Sea Bubble. He was quoted as saying, "I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men".

Oops, I missed that. Thanks.

You won't get far sticking to simple MAs. You need to move on to advanced stuff or you'll lose. When you take a mean of n data points (the basis of the simple moving average), you're basically finding the best horizontal line through a time-series segment. This is suboptimal to finding the...

If he wasn't being told what to think, he wouldn't be able to think at all. :D :D I am grateful to my former church for one thing. They weren't the anti-evolution, anti-intellectual goobers I see here and elsewhere. This bullshit is downright medieval.

You're completely out of your fucking mind. As if we needed further proof, but still worth illuminating.

Hey, asshole, I've developed my own advanced time-series smoother that is faster than SMA2 and smoother than SMA4, so you can stick your stupid ASSumptions where the sun doesn't shine. Good riddance. But as others have said, you'll probably punk out and slink back, likely under a new alias...

Yeah, I read it and don't buy it. Here's their best argument: As Keith Devlin says (Devlin 2003), "By opening his door, Monty is saying to the contestant 'There are two doors you did not choose, and the probability that the prize is behind one of them is 2/3. I'll help you by using my...

50% 50% I know you say this is wrong. Actually it is you who are wrong. Initially your probability was 1 in 3 because you didn't know what was behind any of the three doors. After you learned what was behind one door, your probability turned into 1 in 2. Those who maintain that new...

You have two coins that each come up heads 60% of the time. What are the chances of getting two heads when you flip them? Obviously it's 36%. Any other combination is a wash or a loser. If somebody subs a two-headed coin for one of the original coins, you still don't have a 100% win rate...

Am I the only person here who can read this part of the OP? : "the signal must be agreed by the two methods at the same time" What, you people think that's irrelevant? BOTH methods have to agree. If event A has a probability of p(A) and uncorrelated (aka independent) event B has a...

OMG! Is this a joke thread that belongs in Chit Chat? The question has been answered. Mods, please close this thread.

36% ( .6 x .6 = .36 ). "The signal must be agreed by the two methods at the same time" Amazing how many people here didn't read the OP.

And once again some goober proposes contrived nonsense as an excuse to reject reason. Why am I not surprised? I for one would never trade raw Price over any MA. Ever heard of whipsaws? My system needs at least 24 data points before it takes off, so there's no chance of going off halfcocked...

To me, the very name "investment club" smacks of amateurism and risk aversion. These are people unlikely to ever short anything or to chase momentum successfully. "Trading group" is a more advantageous name; at least reasonable traders don't expect to win every trade or to always have a...

I would suggest you take your own advice but I already know the futility of that. Every trade is just subtracting two prices. I thought even a fibonacci fetishist would know that much. Evidently I'd overestimated you.

No, the point is that adjusted prices do not exist in the real world, adjusted prices are a convenience for the trader that lets him account for dividends and splits. So it doesn't matter that the price data wasn't being.adjusted in real time. It's a BACKTEST! As long as there's no future...

I have yet to see any adjusted price data that didn't account for both dividends and splits. The whole example is contrived nonsense. And I couldn't give a flying fig about triple tops, quadruple bottoms, flags, pennants and wedgies. Most if not all of that cloud pattern stuff is no less...

I totally disagree with your conclusions. The whole point of using adjusted data in TA is that you've already accounted for dividends and splits. No need to go back and look at each dividend and split when someone has already done that for you by providing adjusted data, once you've verified...

All I'm doing is using the adjusted price data to account for splits and dividends. Perhaps I should have used the term "correction factor" instead of ratio. Let's look at the split. The day before, the adjusted price (presumably the adjusted close) is 52.47 and the actual close is...

Yes. I thought I had this figured out but having some objective feedback wouldn't hurt at this point. In backtesting, I use the adjusted close for my technical analysis and the actual next open for my transaction price. The thing I do to reconcile the two is to multiply my market position...