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You're trying to pick tops and bottoms. Good luck with that. :D I know exactly what's happening: the current trend has ended and the next one is unpredictable, which is why I'd never try to pick a top or a bottom. No, it's the market's. I'm not big enough to create any noise in the market.

Google is your friend :cool: Then what good would noise reduction with minimal lag do for you? Why doesn't your same logic apply to consolidations as it does to trends? "By the time you can measure it, it's already over and you're too late."

Enter on a strong trend, exit on a weak trend. How did you think trend trading worked? So you never take a trade unless you're guaranteed a win? Okey dokey. :D The risk of the trend ending is large only if you're late measuring the trend. This is why my own research has focused on optimal...

I don't think the Holy Grail is in the Emerald City. :D If it is, I'm screwed. :(

Analysts often run to LR because it's easy, not because it's truly appropriate or even "good enough" lots of time. In measuring financial trend, you have three options: Option #1 - Account for the curvature of data somehow. Option #2 - Make irrelevant the curvature of the data...

Various? Aside from R-squared, what other GoF is there? My point is that a noiseless nonlinear trend (e.g., parabolic, cubic) will "appear" as a noisy linear trend to linear regression because you're forcing a square peg into a round hole, regardless of how much actual choppiness there is.

A great many people are confused on how best to measure trend. This is understandable because in most cases, nobody has explained to them that trend is a complex thing that requires more than one measurement. There are two primary categories of trend measurement. Trend strength is a...

Assuming you have a bound indicator with limits max and min, the translation formula for original indicator value x is 200*(x - min)/(max - min) - 100

I totally agree. Here's where they lose me. It seems senseless to decide to include an arbitrary point (e.g., the center point) in a linear regression. Frankly I question the whole logic of using a linear regression, given that the vast majority of trends are nonlinear, but maybe that's just...

I can't wait to see the evidence you have to support this claim. What's that? You don't have any? Yeah, I figured. :p

A strange post to find in a trading forum. Are you here to save us from ourselves? :D :D

I keep reading stuff like this here and elsewhere. It is always stated as gospel without a shred of evidence to support it. Most trading failures are the result of NOT having a plan, or decent keys. To state that having these things would make no difference for most traders is merely...

It's especially funny when you realize that this thread was started by a counter-trender. He was trying to pick tops and bottoms, an act of hubris, foolishness and/or desperation no matter how you slice it. In order to trade with the trend, first you have to find the trend. When I see stuff...

Of course. In that case, the eyeball works great without danger of overworking it. But not everyone watches only a single instrument either.

All you eyeball guys crack me up. Try doing that for scores of instruments every trading day for the rest of your trading lives. There's a reason why machines and other technologies are sooo popular world-wide.

"The TI(n) for a specific time t is calculated by doing a linear regression on the n minutes around t (n/2 before t and n/2 after)." Oops. There goes its applicability to trading, which is a real-time application that naturally doesn't allow peeking into the future. IMO the best public...

I may be wrong but I don't think he was proposing an either-or situation, and I know from experience that it certainly doesn't have to be such a situation. Yes we can learn great things from others but the lessons that stick with us the most are the things that we figure out for ourselves, even...

Best trading advice I was ever given, many years ago. :cool:

+1 Moreover we have to be responsible for our own failures. I once took a piece of guru "wisdom" and went off on a tangent (probably more than once but this instance stands out foremost in my mind) and spent a LOT of time and effort trying to hone it into a trading tool. It seemed great...

Standard deviation is a piss-poor measure of risk. Use the Sortino ratio.