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Aren't mean reverting funds designed to take advantage of whipsaws? Or am I missing the whole point on how RTM trading is done?

Best post in thread. Diversification of instruments is waaay overrated. There's a reason why one famous fund manager calls it diWORSEsification. What you want is a multi-instrument strategy that keeps you in the best performer(s), not a strategy that depends on you splitting up your account...

I agree that fib stuff is crap but it's a pity that you banned all indicators because I seriously think even a simple MA crossover system would have produced better results than your both-long-and-short system. Anyway, I just want to put out there the idea that random and unpredictable are...

No, that's what I was Asking. You should learn the difference between a question and a declaration. What makes you think I think that? Regardless of data source, trades take place at specific prices and good data sources will consistently reflect that by agreeing on the trade prices. I don't...

Would you post the evidence for that? Links will do. Thanks in advance.

So are you saying all fx brokers are scammers (bucketshops)? Since they can set up the data anyway they want, unlike stocks and futures which are uniformly priced from broker to broker. And if the demo you use is not the same server as the actual trade server, is your "another matter that has...

You need a system that when backtested for a minimum of, say, 75 trades is not only profitable after accounting for slippages and fees but also beats the buy-and-hold result. If you can't beat the buy-and-hold, then there's no point in trading, right? (But I continue to be amazed at how many...

For backtesting, you should chart the mean of the bid and ask. Then when you get a trade signal, keep in mind that you have to buy at the ask and sell at the bid (the spread is your FX "commission"). How you account for the slippage between when you get your signal and when your trade is...

Most of TA is about following trends without having a clue what causes them. Measuring something and understanding what causes it are two different things.

Seykota's "wisdom" is sophistry. Did you at least look up Zeno's arrow paradox to see what I was referring to?

OK I see your point. But as I see it, the last two sentences of Seykota's quote are completely contradicted by what he said earlier. He can't say something needs to be defined after he has already set limits on the meaning of the word, establishing an implicit definition. Seykota's failure...

You're being deliberately obtuse. I already said the same thing you did in different words. Trend followers expect the price to (continue to) rise because it was already rising. BTW how can the price be rising when, according to you and Seykota, there's no such thing as a current trend? Are...

You buy a security because you expect the price to rise. In other words, you expect an uptrend. You sell a security because you expect the price to fall. In other words, you expect a downtrend. This is called trend following when you think the price is currently in a good trend and you're...

Prove it wrong: First he says trends can only exist in the past, then he says trends have to defined. This is a contradiction, just as surf has already pointed out. The weenie would be the guy who remains willfully ignorant of the evidence after having his face rubbed in it. Seykota is...

You posted the quote by Seykota yourself. Now you act like you don't know what I'm talking about? I disagree with the nonsense that trends don't exist in the present, only in the past. Nothing exists in the past that didn't once exist in the present. This is basic logic.

Seykota's view is nonsense. For once, I agree with surf: this view of trend is nuts. As a trend follower, perhaps you can explain how to follow something that only exists in the past.

I'm just amazed -- and amused -- that in this thread on Trend Following, some people still can't decide whether a trend is real, or can even be defined, or whether it exists in the 'now' even though it exists in the past. Are you people serious? Has anything else ever existed in the past that...

Based on what I've read, the NMA has a fixed length parameter of 20 bars. How this beats a "conventional" adaptive MA with a flexible length is a mystery to me. As far as price action being king, two things: indicators are based on price action so it's not like PA is being ignored, and a...

You're claiming the "Natural Moving Average" to be superior to the Jurik Moving Average. What is your basis for comparison? Thanks. If you have the formulas, PM them to me. I can put them in a spreadsheet if nothing else and send that to you.