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  1. S

    Lumber

    That's crazy! Out of curiosity, did that come from internal insurance tables, or quotes from actual builders, or something else? I always wondered how insurance companies came up with "actual replacement cost" on something as custom as an entire house.
  2. S

    Lumber

    There's more lumber in a house than the 2x4s! Not to mention I'm pretty sure code in Denver is 2x6 for exterior walls and you don't make joists out of 2x4s, and you need cladding...
  3. S

    Lumber

    Lumber is 10-15% of the cost of a stick built house, the 2% number is certainly bogus. But if you pay $300k for a house, typically at least $100k of that will be the land, so that leaves you paying 10% of $200k=20k in lumber. If the price of lumber goes up 20%, that's a $4,000 increase in cost...
  4. S

    Lumber

    We're on the same page. Even if you use $1,200 as the biggest potential impact on price, that number is so small compared to the overall cost of the house that it's irrelevant. I agree with you though, it will probably be even less.
  5. S

    Need to hedge out FX exposure - Ideas

    The point is that no-body is going to do a bespoke OTC for you on $1M notional, it's far too small and as in many aspects of life, size is relevant. If they do, the pricing will be as bad as you're seeing at Saxo.
  6. S

    Portfolio Manager Charged With Diverting Nearly $2 Million to Personal Account

    So he is facing criminal charges, and in all fairness if you rob a bank with a paper bag without any weapons or threats of weapons you'll most probably end up with less of a sentence than this guy will get. Stealing money is bad, robbing a bank with lethal weapons is the stealing part plus the...
  7. S

    Is a Bear 3X Commodity ETF Worse than 3X Bull Commodity ETF?

    Again, you need to understand how 3X ETFs work. Your questions reveal that you don't and you're looking in the wrong direction. Their return really has almost nothing to do with the difference between the underlying price at time X and time Y as you would expect. Because they provide a daily...
  8. S

    Scenario, please reply, tax rate

    As long as you withhold 100% (110% if you made more than $150K) of your last year's income tax liability in advance you're good to go. Way easier than doing quarterly payments.
  9. S

    Lumber

    I agree, the lumber is a very small percentage of the home cost, most of which is made up of the land the home sits on and labor. This article is saying the tariff could $1200 to the cost of a new house...
  10. S

    We need to talk about this student loan bubble

    You're using The Blaze as a reliable source for finance news? Seriously! Typical of any highly biased source trying to make a political point I see a bunch of statistics unrelated to one another thrown together with a conclusion unsupported by those statistics, which sadly fools too many people...
  11. S

    What does New York City produce?

    Why is anyone stuck on "tangible" or "touchable". We got to the point in the U.S. a long time ago where we had enough potatoes for everyone and the ability to produce far more than anyone wants or needs. If you think potatoes are "real" because you can touch them and somehow more relevant than...
  12. S

    Anyone profiting from Venezuela right now? If so, how?

    There are a number of Central and South American countries with a lot less educated population and no oil that went from all-out civil war to OK stability in less than a decade. I too like the idea of a real option there. I know there's a massive unfinished high rise in the middle of Caracas...
  13. S

    Deutsch Bank

    DB shares were $11.50 when the folks on this thread were sure it was going bankrupt in Oct because of "derivative instruments" that they couldn't name. Now it's $16.50. How'd those short positions work out again?
  14. S

    How to start a Hedge fund?

    Renaissance has a 35% annualized return over 20 years, for one. Again, however, you invest in hedge funds if you're putting together a portfolio where correlation matters per modern portfolio theory. That's why the majority of their LPs are institutional investors, for whom hedge funds make up a...
  15. S

    How to start a Hedge fund?

    Clearly underperforming isn't the "at best" scenario, many outperform and in any case most hedge funds aim for absolute vs relative returns. If you're an institution that is looking for uncorrelated strategies for your portfolio, even the absolute returns may not be as important as correlations...
  16. S

    es vs. equally liquid instrument

    Again I'd like to see this. Unless it's happening at the microsecond level, if I can see a volatility difference between SPY and ES I'm going to arb it out. If it's at the microsecond level or not possible to arb, then it's too small/fleeting to weigh on a decision between trading SPY vs ES and...
  17. S

    What do you think about crowd investing?

    If you invest in a crowdfunded startup you're essentially donating money to them in order to be part of something you're interested or excited about. There's nothing wrong with that, just don't make the mistake of thinking you're investing. You have no power over the term sheet, which is...
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    How to start a Hedge fund?

    I'm curious if anyone knows of any successful hedge funds that were started in the last decade by someone who didn't have previous finance industry experience or a rich parent? If so, those would be the examples to follow. I don't know of any but I'm not in the industry so there very well may be...
  19. S

    Triangular arbitrage

    The forex folks have convinced themselves that being short and long an identical position is "arbitrage", probably what mr. ForexGrowth is thinking of.
  20. S

    Private luxury aircraft, international travel

    Probably tough to justify on pure economics, but when you're doing your math remember you get to go to the Signature FBO off to the side of the airport, park 5' from the front door, and walk straight through to your plane and be in the air 15 minutes later. Depending how early you usually get to...
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