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  1. Q

    Thoughts on unusual options activity?

    Look up Sang Lucci on YouTube. There's no one video.. He's selling a course on it, but what I described is a summary what I glimpsed from several videos.
  2. Q

    Is Credit Spread really profitable?

    I can't figure this one out ... You know you are picking pennies in front of a steamroller, so the answer is to trade small. How small to make it meaningful though? I just can't understand why retail trader would play this game with personal funds without any possibility to scale? I'm getting...
  3. Q

    Thoughts on unusual options activity?

    Interesting topic. I've been watching some videos where the guy claims to use both stocks and options orderflow. So in one video he was asked the same question - how do you know it's not hedging/legging? While he did not explain the algo they use(it generates alerts), he said that they can...
  4. Q

    Index Spread Traders

    Well, theoretically, the constituents are supposed to dictate where the index is, so futures need to be bought or sold to reflect the change. But in reality I think Futures lead and stocks catch up. But I can't say I have found anything tradable there yet.
  5. Q

    Index Spread Traders

    If we are looking purely at Index vs. its constituents (or equivalent basket), how do I know which will be used to bring the two inline? Or is that being coordinated by the "other participants" at the start?
  6. Q

    Index Spread Traders

    @Real Money, moved your reply to this thread where I think it belongs. Trying to solve the puzzle :) ... "The HFT firms are performing arbitrage with ES, NQ,YM, and RTY against the underlying stocks, as well as synthetic portfolios that approximate the performance of these indexes. This...
  7. Q

    What is the edge in your trade?

    Hi, I've seen you use this term before, but I'm not sure what exactly you refer to. Are you saying that there is a rotation of money from index futures to stocks and vise versa? Or you are looking at other instruments like bonds or FX futures to spot money flowing into stocks and stock...
  8. Q

    What is the edge in your trade?

    How is this a kind of hedge? Because if the long trade idea fails, the opposite of it must work? I don't get it.
  9. Q

    What is the edge in your trade?

    How about size?
  10. Q

    What is the edge in your trade?

    I bet, for each, you know exactly why you have an edge. The example you provided sounds like arb play, if I understood correctly.
  11. Q

    What is the edge in your trade?

    See, this was kinda my point in the other thread. During certain months, for selected stocks, I do specific things if some conditions are met. You have developed an edge using options as a tool. The time decay in itself is not an edge. I feel like what I hear from educators is - sell premium...
  12. Q

    What is the edge in your trade?

    I'm glad you said that. I would argue it's luck, or being at the right place at the right time, but is not an edge in itself. In other words, you cannot do a pitch to a potential investor and say that. There's absolutely no skill involved in that, you are at the mercy of the markets. I know...
  13. Q

    Is Credit Spread really profitable?

    Exactly! Selling premium with delta neutral trades, at least the way it is taught by most online outfits, is like buying pull backs in a bull market (or playing mean reversion in a sideways market) only much much riskier. Yes, the probabilities are on your side, but what edge do you have other...
  14. Q

    Is Credit Spread really profitable?

    Yes, it's my opinion that normal distribution doesn't apply to volatility in practical sense because the risk of blow up is too high to put any real size on (relative to the portfolio size). So people who sell premium at retail level are dickering around with no edge whatsoever other than...
  15. Q

    Is Credit Spread really profitable?

    "Taleb's central critique of "The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual Fraud," (the title of Chapter 15) is that it is often applied to areas that are subject to the dynamics of Extremistan, even though it only accurately describes Mediocristan." I appreciate you replying to my questions. I can...
  16. Q

    Is Credit Spread really profitable?

    Why can't it double prior to collapsing? Isn't it just taking a directional guess on volatility? Yeah I guess volatility is mean reverting, so is that in itself an edge? I understand (I think) that options are tools one can use, but does the edge come from making same old directional bets? If...
  17. Q

    How a "pro charter" makes good amount of $$$ in HK every single day

    It's kinda funny how many steps you have listed to make "easy" money. Each one would be a major undertaking. Different people have different talents. Nothing wrong with maximizing and monetizing your talents in a legal manner. Every service fulfils some need. We are not talking about scamming...
  18. Q

    Practical differences between Limit Buy order and Market Limit Buy order

    Let's say to want to buy 300 shares of XYZ. NBBO is 10.00 x 11.00 1. You send market order, get filled: 100 @ 11.00 100 @ 11.50 100 @. 12.00. Ouch 2 You send limit order to buy at 11.75, get 100 @ 11 100 @ 11.50 The other 100 is limit @ 11.75 3 You send MTL...
  19. Q

    Index Spread Traders

    How is this any better than waiting flat on the sidelines?
  20. Q

    Index Spread Traders

    Nah, common, they have proven themselves many times over. I think this thread started as a general spreading idea, which people generally in favor of, and kinda quickly got into scalping challenges. Overall, a great thread I think. Learned something from everyone.
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