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I am not a policymaker. Why would I be interested in a solution or in resolving the situation? That's not part of the job description.

You should do this scenario exercise for yourself, using your own outcomes, terminal vaue and probabilities. As to when, I don't have the slightest.

Well, as I said my specific numbers don't matter and we should all assign whatever terminal values and probabilities we feel are appropriate. However, I am interested in discussing this. Even in 2007 Italy's (as well as others') govt debt to GDP was an unpleasant number. I am also not sure...

Well, some of his points are valid. However, I don't think there's any doubt that Europe in theory has the ability to deal with its issues (as Trichet never stops point out, the Eurozone as a whole is relatively healthy). What's in doubt is the presence of political will to make it happen. On...

Help with what? What do you think I need help with? Would it help me with the riots :)?

No, I haven't...

Haha, wasn't my intention to bring that sh1te in. Moreover, this one isn't even a chooser. I think I may have invented a new financial product :).

Well, let's say I define four possible scenarios for the EUR (specific numbers given are sorta random estimates): 1) The EMU works out its issues and keeps "muddling on". Let's say this implies EURUSD arnd here, i.e. 1.43 2) The stronger members of the EMU exit and go back to their national...

Doesn't matter how you do it, as long as you're consistent.

Ah, that is, indeed, a most interesting question. Let's put together a list of alternatives and we will be able to figure out if any of them are "better".

I agree that the outcomes are always random to an extent. However, in the case of Walmart stock there's a reasonable expectation that the final return on your position is tied to Walmart performance (as defined by dividends, balance sheet, etc). In the case of a contract I have defined its...

1. Inflation 2. Yes, as well as spending on various safety nets.

Because we don't know what the new € is going to be.

I disagreed with the specific description given in the original article of what's been going on in the US money mkts. I didn't express an opinion on QE and the Fed. I can and we can have an discussion, if you so desire, but I first need to ask you a simple question. Is there anything that...

Erm, you're contradicting yourself here... All the examples of "brutal inflations" that you cite were a result of political upheaval. What exactly does a central bank have to do with inflation in post-revolution Russia, for example? The great depression, on the other hand, as well as the...

Extremely low treasury yields are not solely a function of sov credit, so you cannot draw the conclusion that it's not my first factor based on absolute low yields alone. Moreover, I never said that it's the main reason. To convince yourself that the deteriorating creditworthiness of the US is...

Because we know that it won't pay out. ISDA (and the European authorities) have stated that the Private Sector Involvement (PSI) currently happening in GGBs (Greek sov bonds) - a restructuring by anyone sane's definition - does NOT constitute a credit event. So, to be sure, if you're long GGBs...

You disagree with what? I am saying that the FT blog has completely misinterpreted the reason the Fed's engaging in the reverse repos. They're also completely wrong with their description of what's been happening in the US money mkts recently (i.e. collateral issues, cash balances at the...

You're incorrect. Also, you should really stop looking as sov CDS in general, and US sov CDS in particular. It's the stupidest and yet most widely publicized and referenced financial product in existence.

"Protests"? "Caused by leftist in London"? Wow, you're really on top of things...