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  1. johnarb

    Bank Runs! What's Going On? - Patrick Boyle

    A good ELI5 Twitter thread on held-to-maturity (HTM) bond portfolio EllioTrades actually put out a video a half hour ago that makes it clear for my fractional banking smooth brain The reason the Fed and others are in a panic to bail out SVB is because if they do not bail out SVB and their...
  2. johnarb

    Is the crypto winter over?

    Funnymentals strongly disagree with your chart analysis I already said I have a bet on the short term casino, not planning to add until bitcoin is above $27k Do you have a trade position or waiting for an entry?
  3. johnarb

    Bank Runs! What's Going On? - Patrick Boyle

    Is there some urgency before the Asian markets open? :rolleyes:
  4. johnarb

    Is the crypto winter over?

    Prolly nothing...
  5. johnarb

    To the bears whining about crypto---

    Good, that means you're enjoying the ponzi fiat banks having a meltdown. Tomorrow will be fun for you and us
  6. johnarb

    Bank Runs! What's Going On? - Patrick Boyle

    These people don't like online banking https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11849049/Customers-line-outside-Republic-Bank-money-SVB-bank-collapsed.html
  7. johnarb

    Coinbase Pauses Conversions Between USDC and U.S. Dollars as Banking Crisis Roils Crypto

    FDIC insurance is only $250K, so they lost $3.3 B, but so did many many silicon valley startups and companies, unless there's a bailout, Bill Ackman already begging for one
  8. johnarb

    Coinbase Pauses Conversions Between USDC and U.S. Dollars as Banking Crisis Roils Crypto

    I posted it on schizo's thread "is the crypto winter over" Most banks are insolvent if forced to realize losses on their long dated securities holdings (i.e. MBS, US Treasuries) and the biggest bank, the Fed is also insolvent SVB was forced to realize losses m2m due to a run on the bank, due...
  9. johnarb

    Coinbase Pauses Conversions Between USDC and U.S. Dollars as Banking Crisis Roils Crypto

    USDC traded as low as 87 cents and now above 93 cents, but is there an opportunity here? USDC is not like Luna UST that had a death spiral to $0 due to the mechanics of algorithmic stablecoin peg-defense So, let's think about this for a little bit, USDC lost 10% of the funds backing 1-to-1...
  10. johnarb

    Coinbase Pauses Conversions Between USDC and U.S. Dollars as Banking Crisis Roils Crypto

    You're welcome, RedDuke, but this particular issue is not what why I avoid USDC, it's because of US restrictions and censorship, i.e. OFAC In some ways, though, this is somewhat related to some of my concerns when holding USDC tokens and having a counterparty that is US-based and subject to US...
  11. johnarb

    Coinbase Pauses Conversions Between USDC and U.S. Dollars as Banking Crisis Roils Crypto

    This is a user-error, I don't understand how anyone or any company can hold $2M worth of a complex liquidity pool token comprised of several tokens and try to swap it without examining which dex would execute the trade and what liquidity is available This is so unbelievably stupid, I can't even...
  12. johnarb

    Is the crypto winter over?

    We're not wishing for a financial crisis or end of the world, we're wishing for a Fed pivot, hence why I'm back on the short term trade long btc perp futures If the Fed continues the aggressive rate hikes, say a 50 bps, then the m2m losses of the banks holding treasuries and other long dated...
  13. johnarb

    Coinbase Pauses Conversions Between USDC and U.S. Dollars as Banking Crisis Roils Crypto

    Prolly nothing... but then I only hold Tether https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/03/11/coinbase-pauses-conversions-between-usdc-and-us-dollars-as-banking-crisis-roils-crypto/ Coinbase Pauses Conversions Between USDC and U.S. Dollars as Banking Crisis Roils Crypto Circle earlier confirmed...
  14. johnarb

    Is the crypto winter over?

    In the middle of the video, you will hear Bill say that this has nothing to do with crypto. SVB is not a crypto bank, SI was. Both banks shutdown Here's the numbers in printed form if you'd like There's a typo on the breakdown, just in case people jump on it
  15. johnarb

    Is the crypto winter over?

    This is my perp futures casino account for short term trading You do know I hodl bitcoins and don't trade those, right? Those are for holding until btc reaches $500K and $1M and $10M and higher SVB is only the tip of the iceberg, most banks are insolvent including the Fed, if you watch the...
  16. johnarb

    Is Tether/USDT Still Safe?

    Prolly nothing...
  17. johnarb

    Is the crypto winter over?

    Long btc perp futures @ $20,469 Banks are insolvent, the Fed is insolvent, I think it's time for a pivot. Only issue is that I get liquidated before the Fed decision
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