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Here was the ET Poll in the days leading up to the debt ceiling debate... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=224151 84 voted for a rally 20 voted for a decline. Shortly thereafter, we had our first 9 day decline in 30+ years. Hey, who knows how the crowd is...

Their attitude reminds me of the kind of b.s. I saw in the days following the O.J. verdict.

ET is overwhelming finished and has been since around 2007-08. Markets declining 9 days in a row is not an indication of "everybody being short" FWIW. It's an indication that everyone was long ahead of the much anticipated 3-5% rally on news of the debt ceiling hike.

Agree. I'd bet the exact conditions that the OP cited were in existence in the days prior to the Crash of 29 and 87 as well. IOW, oversold markets, on occasion, lead to crashes.

What was it 85-90% believed the market would rally 2-3% after the raising of the debt ceiling a few weeks back? This is just like the sentiment we saw 4 years ago. The bigger the decline, the more bullish guys get. Most of the time guys would get long after the big reversal days higher...

And I'll counter the above argument that much of what you have mentioned is either rear view mirror or the state of events in this current completely unsustainable system of finance/governance. Many, many people seem to overlook the boost in earnings that central banks flooding the system...

To repeat, it's exactly what was happening in 2007-08. Except that this time, we've already exhausted the bag of tricks to get us back to these upper limits of what the Fed is willing to allow in so far as commodity inflation/oil prices, etc... The policy of weakening the dollar to boost...

I've got no real dog in this debate, but I would add that the verdict is still out on whether this commodity inflation wasn't really just the "herd" gunning risk assets with ZIRP and Bernanke broadcasting via his loudspeaker that he welcomes inflation and would keep rates "artificially low"...

Thank you for making that very salient point: "letting asset prices deflate". I've been saying this for God knows how long...this generational asset bubble that is not allowed to deflate, but instead is leading to the intentional devaluation of the currency to maintain completely artificial...

It's kinda funny, but there are some things that I completely agree with you on and other things that I find completely opposed to my worldview. Maybe, it's just lost in translation... On this matter, I completely agree. The whole two party system is nothing more than a "good cop / bad...

It speaks more to the fact that given ONLY two choices, the population is easily swayed into voting AGAINST a perceived evil, while still maintaining some illusion of free will.

smart money is some bullshit expression that novices start using after reading some worthless books about trading/investing. Nine-ender has already been discredited numerous times, no need to re-hash the mouthbreather's sordid history.

Not sure how you define "normal". I'd agree if you were talking about the markets pre-2003 or so, but you have to remember we literally went 4+ years at one point without a 2% down close to close. Of course, by 2007-08 all hell broke loose and volatility returned with vengeance. Managed...

Nine-ender is/was just a novice with a bad attitude and a chip on his shoulder from getting bear raped during the last meltdown.

It tells me absolutely nothing about inflation expectations. Instead, it has tricked guys like yourself into blindly believing treasuries forecast anything. During that period crude oil went from $10 in 1998 to $147 a decade later. Gold went up about 6-8 fold. Commodity prices have skied...

Looks like Nine-Ender lost the dead pool. May he do the honorable thing.

Take a shot at it Gabfly.

Not to speak for Max, but no way that it will be prolonged 10 years...wait until this market goes into the tank again in the near future...

+1

The OP doesn't seem to realize that his continued defensiveness over all things Obama is the EXACT same behavior that he continues to critique the Bush "fanboys" for. In other words, both Bush and Obama abandoned all of their campaign "principles" within months of their inauguration. Only...