Spending too much time below the balance low at 98, favors staying down there and possibly lower, probability of up decreases with each minute we stay below IMO.
http://screencast.com/t/dhT8lhNPyg
No, posted this after it made the 96.50 low
The order flow that pushed it up from 96.50 was convincing enough for me to want to buy if they tested the bottom again. And yes the risk is quantified, 2-3 ticks risk makes it worth it to me.