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That upper bound only works in theory, too. Imagine a market maker that sold a put on bitcoin. He collected full notional of premium but he is now long. Since he is under obligation to show you an unwind level (which will be, obviously, a theoretical bound again), there is a distinct possibility...

Oh, did not realize - there used to be a fair number of guys here who had access to proper OTC via their aggregators such as prop-firms. In your case I'd imagine your best bet is to stick to futures options and options on FX ETFs. Indeed. You also get much better price discovery, at the cost of...

A combo consisting of American options has an explicit sensetivity to volatility, since the calls have additional optionality. Even if nothing has changed in terms of divs and funding, you can see it if the option is right on the early-X boundary the day before the ex-dividend date. PS. Take...

I assume you are trying to make markets in bitcoin options? Here are some random thoughts. First of all, using a true model, especially one that includes some ideas about the dynamics of volatility makes sense if there are sufficient number of market participants that trade the product. From...

There are numerous reasons to pick OTC vs exchange listed. First of all, if you are trying to pick specific event dates, dealers would provide you with custom expirations. Also, there is a wide variety of exotic options that you can trade in OTC. If we are talking about proper OTC options (via...

You are confusing the professional success with quality of writing. For all I care he could be running a circus (sans the elephants, of course) as long as the ideas expressed in the book make sense and are well expressed. Nobody is saying that his ideas are new or unique, but he collated them...

It's not "no risk", you are short convexity if you think of it. Say you trade a combo and buy the stock. If the stock goes up enough, it gets called away before the ex-div date and you are stuck with a put that's going to be pricing much lower at that point. Since these are American options...

Hmm. I was going to call this out as an under-estimate of the millionaires in the US (intuitively, I felt like around $5m is the 95th percentile by wealth, which apparently is very wrong), so I googled it. Instead, it appears that the estimates are all over the place depending on the metric and...

Well, as an immigrant myself, I should say something like "I am the living example, I came here with $140 in my pocket and now I am in the top 5% by net worth in this country". But I am pretty sure that for any immigrant success story like my own, there are plenty failures. Plus, even in my case...

And, by all expectations, it will be over-fit.

LOL :) Simply selected it with a mouse. But I do see that section now.

Well, at least say which paper and give me the page :) I only had a cursory look, so I would not be surprised if I missed something. Well, actually, they specifically say that

Maybe we are reading different papers or something. Both studies that I linked more or less talk about the same thing - intergenerational economic mobility as evidenced by income plasticity in one or another form (another, a more comprehensive study can be found here...

You mean life, truth or all of it? :D

Your theoretical price will be using implied volatility which will be based on the options price in the market :) you see where I am going, right? If your theo is at or above the mid (which it would be sometimes) and MMs are axed to sell, you will get filled. Theoretical option price is just an...

You probably had some delta losses and some Vega losses :) what's so unusual?

But not really, there are many separate messages in the book. The "live below your means" one is prominent but secondary. It's also one of the few bits there that show some statistical significance and common sense. However, what I think is the main message, that "any blue collar worker cab...

lets see - how about France, Germany, Sweden, Canada, Finland, Norway, Denmark based on this study: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/02_economic_mobility_sawhill_ch3.pdf More or less the same is said in this study, though their methodology is somewhat different...

Well, part of his success is surely luck, but there is some value to the ideas described in the book. It does not mean that it would be easy to implement across a fully company, but doing that sort of thing for oneself or a small team might be a plausible goal.

Bold statement. What model did you use to estimate the price of bitcoin as a unit of currency?