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  1. S

    What’s up?

    Also, do you mean long "all in" or somewhat long? :)
  2. S

    Market sell-off could get 'significantly worse' this week — and it echoes 1987 crash, strategist say

    So the concept is to allocate into various assets not based on nominal amount, but rather based on risk which you can do using some modicum of leverage. At lot of the happiness embedded in the strategy takes advantage of the low-to-negative correlation between bonds and risk assets. If I had to...
  3. S

    Dividend strat

    I think that's the whole point of the example, since he says "I am saying to the OP is that, this will not happen in real life".
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    These numbers show Suze Orman is right about needing $5 million to retire

    While I don't buy into the whole FIRE, it's pretty clear that Suze is posturing and arguing for the sake of the argument. It's a publicity stunt, nothing more. For starters, most people will never get to that number, even people that are making pretty reasonable income. For the back of the...
  5. S

    Do you need to understand where the edge comes from?

    "Мама анархия, папа стакан портвейна" (c)
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    Market sell-off could get 'significantly worse' this week — and it echoes 1987 crash, strategist say

    That or risk parity funds. A crash-like selloff in bonds accompanied by a crash-like selloff in stocks would certainly be a perfect storm for a lot of people.
  7. S

    Risk of American Options Being Exercised Early

    Assuming your American option delivers a futures contract after exercise and your option (either call or put) is deep ITM, you might want to early exercise once the funding costs exceed whatever value of optionality is left.
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    Fully automated futures trading

    Funny, I am not super-keen on that book, it's very much oriented towards old school market making and it pretty dated. My initial reaction is almost always something like Volatility Trading by filthy, which is not perfect either.
  9. S

    Do you need to understand where the edge comes from?

    That is definitely false
  10. S

    What were some warning signs for the 2015 Swiss Franc disastrous event?

    Again, it's ex-post reasoning. For example, DKK was in a more obvious downtrend - the peg held and it bounced back violently. PS. not trying to belittle you as a trader, rather saying that it's hard to make predictions especially about the future
  11. S

    It’s better to be born rich than gifted

    Considering the garden variety of scandals surrounding the Trump Foundation and charity donations from Trump personally, it's possible that I personally give more money to charity than he does.
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    What were some warning signs for the 2015 Swiss Franc disastrous event?

    Pretty sure you can look at plenty charts (including other pegged currencies) and find these kinds of patterns. Once you look at it ex-post, it's mostly apophenia.
  13. S

    What were some warning signs for the 2015 Swiss Franc disastrous event?

    Everything is obvious in the hindsight, right?
  14. S

    Nice people have more debt and less savings

    Supposedly, it's based on this: Matz, S. C., & Gladstone, J. J (in press). Nice guys finish last: when and why agreeableness is associated with financial hardship. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Of course, the journalists might have perverted the findings (very probable) or the...
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    Do you need to understand where the edge comes from?

    I am not an expert, but I think you'd want to know whose lunch you are eating and why that lunch is being given away. If you can't provide a hypothesis for your alpha, there is a fair chance that it's a result of random change, that the effect existed for a reason or that you would not be able...
  16. S

    It’s better to be born rich than gifted

    than sick and poor :)
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    How big is the UST cash bond market vs UST futures?

    I am a complete noob at many things, so there is nothing wrong with that. To be fair, I think @comagnum misunderstood the OP and I came off a bit argumentative in my initial response to him.
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    It’s better to be born rich than gifted

    Do you consider yourself rich at your current level of PNW? Audience wants to know :) On the topic, I did read the actual paper and it's pretty solid (as a paper in Nature should be), so it's hard to argue with the findings. The perception of the social consequences is up to the reader, let's...
  19. S

    Firing Back at Trump in the Trade War with Tariffs Aimed at His Base

    I received the same honor. Kinda refreshing :)
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