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Is it equities only? I was under impression it is a cross-asset trend following strategy, though maybe less sophisticated than what modern quant CTAs use.

Are you suggesting that trend following is dead (very possible, at least for a while) or that Turtles method was a fraud from the start (can't comment, TBH)?

Sorry, this is making me dizzy. What exactly are you trying to say? I guess I am not a capable trader then. As long as a strategy is not losing a ton of money and has positive statistical expectation, I'd run it.

If the overall expectation is positive, why not?

Nah, the guy that calls for market crashes over many years and is poor is a fool. The guy who calls for market crashes and is rich (due to selling research or running a tail fund) is a smart marketer.

For sure. Also, I think a lot of people underestimate how much patience and self confidence is required for this job. Even if you have a strategy with a long-term Sharpe of 2, it's hard to distinguish it from noise on a day to day basis.

I doubt anyone gets there easy (I know a few professional musicians). It's the "swan effect" - while it looks like the swan is gliding effortlessly, his legs are paddling frantically under the surface. Trading is hard because you are making predictions. That's hard enough. Trading is hard...

It's an oversimplification, as pretty much any blanket statement would be. OPM: Relatively early on, most pros have skin in the game in the form of deferred comp, fund investments etc. If you suck you will eventually get fired, unless you are a PR genius. Capacity: The real headache that OPM...

I was just throwing out a random number :) - when I am sober, I can divide 24 by 16 relatively well :) On a related note (to the topic, not my dinner), I just looked at where the crash cliquets are trading. These are OTC products - day-over-day put spreads that knock out if they ever hit - and...

Most "decriers of TA" use some form of evidence-based investing/trading. There is a huge body of scientific knowledge about finance and various relevant tools. Go read a book :) PS. I'd imagine that most people that "decry TA" decry the various forms of apophenia that TA practitioners suffer from.

That's what happens when you are posting drunk from a family dinner :) Indeed, 2.5%, not 3.5%.

In fairness, it certainly could happen. If you assume that VIX is a reasonable predictor at 24 (so exactly 2.5% per day), it's roughly 3-standard deviation event so probability is something like 0.3%.

Would probably would lead to an increase of correlation to the downside and likely on a bounce.

Well, it's not really though. An investor that's holding a bunch of stocks will cherry-pick what he's going to sell (sometimes rightly and sometimes wrongly), while if someone is just long an ETF he's forced to dump the whole basket.

I have an app installed on my iphone instead :)

:D I hear one of them likes beer :) Per Se is nice indeed...

To revive this, apparently this is happening: https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/indicted-rep-chris-collins-holds-slight-lead-over-democratic-challenger-1539694232 @destriero, I think your risk on the trade has just gone up - if he's pursuing reelection, he must think he'll get away with the...

FX futures price includes the interest rate differential and some other more esoteric stuff. So no, you're not "all hosed up"

A race car driver would have a understanding of every component in his vehicle, some of it in fair depth. A soccer mom driving her minivan knows nothing about her car but then again, she is not competing with anyone. A trader (i.e. a human that is extracting alpha) is more similar to a race...

my condolences :(