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Yeah, it definitely is too late :) If you are trading volatility properly, most of your strategies are beta-neutral and do not involve "timing" in the sense you are using it. PS. a wise man would not argue about things that he does not understand

You don't need to backtest, instead you want to try understand the relationships between implied and realized volatilities. Once you got a few good models, there is a lot of money to be made trading vol.

The embedded convexity makes options nearly impossible to back-test. Understanding the volatility relationships is a different story, but doing pure backtesting is nearly impossible. In life, of course, a lot of different ways coexist and grown-ups know this (let a hundreed flowers bloom...

"Some people should not be allowed into a library unattended" (c) One of my college professors

No, it's the Jews!

No, it's not an idential position to a short put once you factor in your own financing and tax considerations. I am also pretty sure that shorting weekly upside puts would show a positive expectation, albeit with some pretty hefty drawdowns.

One way or another, a market-maker is trying to estimate the volatility environment he's going to be exposed to over the life of the trade. It does not matter if he's using pure BS or some complex stoch vol model, in the end it all comes down to a vol level.

If you are truly afraid of default or hyperinflation (which would be pretty much the same thing), you should be doing exactly the opposite - draw as much credit as you could, do not hoard cash and otherwise ensure that you have as much real assets as you can.

Toronto is not Canada, just like NYC is not the USA. My appartment in Manhattan, of a relatively modest size (about 1600 ft^2) is worth about two million :( and the maintenance plus taxes comes to 4k a month. From what i'd guess, its pretty avarage in my hood. I think comfortable living for...

that would earn me a smack from my Mrs... she's coming with me, obviously...

just thought of another one: "End Bonus Reductions!"

I am going to a broker party tonight dressed as an Occupy Wall Street protester and trying to think what would be a good sign to carry with me. Please vote ASAP!

I think the real edge is in vol or var swap dispersion... if you got enough capital to play, of course.

Really? Are you going to "crunch the numbers"? My impression was that you specialize in picking bottoms...

"I am not very smart, but I can lift heavy things" (c)

It would require an adjustment on a regular basis, yes. I don't really trade my PA, so I can't comment how tenable or untenable is vol trading for a retail trader.

Well, rather simple - if you think implied vol [over/under]-predicts the future realized, [sell/buy] the option and delta-hedge. If you manage to find some options that are over-predicting and some that are under-predicting, you can run a nice, beta-neutral book. The real question is - how do...

I'd say that if someone on this board should not be accused of "not owning a pair" its atticus - check out the thread about selling index strangles (whatever the name of it was) a little while ago.

Amen to that!

Right, so you agree that volatility comes first? Further, it's pretty easy to prove to yourself that implied volatility is nothing more then markets guess of the future realized vol. The fact that this volatility "estimate" comes from a price of an option or is quoted to you directly (as in...