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(a) is it ATM forward on both displays? (b) do both models calculate vols from the right forward? (c) is it business days or calendar days? (d) is it interpolated or closest strike? etc...

It does not suit any purpose because these are (a) totally illiquid, since you can't really get a two-way on any of the binaries or spreads (b) priced by the "exchange" at eggregious spreads plus get charged high execution fees (c) not really protected by any sort of regulatory body and is...

Why "LoL"? It really depends on where you go. If you go to a big urban center, it's going to be a disaster. If you go to Goa and mostly lie on the beach, it's not too bad. Tons of people down-shift to India, Thailand, Vietnam and seem pretty happy. I went out to Thailand some years ago and can...

You can live well if you're rich and you can live well if you're poor. But if you're poor it's much cheaper. Personally, I think for a very regular life style, NYC to the boonies exchange rate is about 1:4 (food is probably 2x cheaper, real estate is probably 6 times, it averages to something...

Personally, if I were trading for myself, I'd just sell crash puts. Logic is simple: (a) Crash is way overpriced due to new regulations and economic capital requirements. E.g. desks are forced to cover all sort of unrealistic scenarios like -20% and -35% down gap in index as well as +50%/-50%...

These are proposed amendments to an existing law that might or might not get approved. This said, every EM country with strong monetary policy is probably looking for ways to prevent people from using bitcoin. General EM wisdom is that strict monetary repressions will make the prohibited asset...

Out of curiosity, is there anything preventing the Deutche Banks and UBSs of the world from getting involved, aside from reputational risk? They already have pretty good FX trading platforms and once hedgies/propsters will get involved in, they could integrate BTC x USD and other pairs in the...

Think about this way - upside/downside digitals are nothing but coin flips, so their fair value is 0.5. These guys are offering them as "bet 1 to win 0.7", which means the % market is 35% @ 65% (since both downside and upside digitals are betting 1 to win 0.7). Even without a balanced book...

30% wide digital market for the market maker? Yeah, real risky :D

(a) did you actually see the bid offer on these stupid binaries? it is beyond eggregious! i know that volatility of the bitcoin is high, but probability of making money is very low with this style of execution (b) i have zero views on bitcoin except that in these early stages it's very hard...

Actually, if you are able to get good execution, weekly dime options (not spreads) are most likely the best sell. As a retailer, by doing this you are providing liquidity to banks and large funds that have pretty eggregious crash risk limits nowdays (their lunch is now your lunch, important to...

Did you go to Velvet Jones School of Technology?

Oh, I see - I did not catch it, but then again I am not a native english speaker.

The short answer is "no". The long answer is "with your returns, why would you need to work for someone else?".

Le secret des grandes fortunes sans cause apparente est un crime oublié, parce qu’il a été proprement fait. --Honoré de Balzac The secret of a great success for which you are at a loss to account is a crime that has never been found out, because it was properly executed.

The guy used to run an index vol desk at a large bank and blew up big time. So he's a real deal and, to be honest, most of these stories I've seen too (though never participated).

Of course. Most retail products are like that - hell, charging 50 bp to roll futures is a great scam too.

The argument is that some people want to diversify. HFs give them alternative sources of alpha, at least in theory. In reality, of course, most large funds are simply alternative sources of beta.

Darn! If a coaster goes for 100, maybe that's what I should do instead of trading...

It applies to 99% of the financial industry - the money is mostly made on "services", one way or the other. Large funds fit that bill well, since it is mostly a diversification service, the source of alternative alpha. Is it really? Personally, I don't think so, HFRX index is pretty well...