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Perhaps all the people who give a hoot about BTC have already bought.

IMV, the market is in denial... still expecting the Fed to do "something" to end this. The bulls have not yet acknowledged the bear.... unless the Fed pivots, the bulls will have to "toss in the towel".... then we'll see the real bear market.

Yes... but we should all have recognized what the failure of Citibank might mean... actually TBTF, so had to suspect the government would be bailing them out.

Don't have to start small... just have the market/issue keep declining as you scale in. Amazon could likely be a good play long term. Not because of their retail business but because of AWS. AMZN is on my watch list to buy after the "great smashola". FWIW... Citibank traded down to $.95 in...

DCA with puts. Interesting.

I wonder if today's high volatility doesn't at least extend some of EW's parameters. When Precter and Frost did their work, market's were not under the same influence like today.

I never was favoring this count... just couldn't eliminate it (yet). The count is rarely clear (at least to me) until close to the end of a pattern. Easy to see the action from the top as "nearly completed, 5 waves down". IF that's the case, then that is/could be "Wave 1 Down" of the bear and...

How you should have played it in 2 parts.. 1. Have a stop in place that would take you out as the market started dropping (drop was fast so may have had undesirable slippage in your fill) 2. After the "possible/apparent bottom" decide what to do next.

There you go! :D And this wasn't even an extreme event. Remember that group a couple of years ago that went "bust-plus" for selling naked calls on natgas? Went "locked limit up" for a few days so that there were no buyers... and trapped the call sellers hugely. Wiped out the entire capital...

This morning's response to the CPI is just the kind of thing that could cause a put seller to take a big loss.

HOGWASH! (It's "dimes".) :)

Put premiums are fat right now because of perceived risk... figures to mean you're more likely to get trapped than when the market is bullish.

Ditto. But in a bear market a much tougher call. Like in the above example, "sold puts for 68, bought back at 250". That's the kind of thing you leave yourself open to.

Traders sell puts in a rising market, expecting they won't go ITM... and they usually don't so the seller gets to keep the premium. Some lever up on the exposure by buying LOTS of puts.. and they usually get away with it in a rising market. So naturally your study would show a significant...

Too risky IMV. You can "sort of safely" sell puts only up to the amount of cash you hold to cover being exercised... and that doesn't include the "big surprise drop" from whatever and wherever.

I was on you case for being so blatantly wrong, but you were civil about it.. so I will be also. :) 1. Hedge fund managers are supposed to secure alpha through "better stock selection". Come to learn, they're not as good at it as advertised/expected. 2. B&H is a "thing", mostly from Fed...

This is the first post of yours I've encountered... and though you don't realize it, your premise is entirely wrong. Not just "a little off", but zero percent correct.

Amazing. You profess to know yet don't have even the slightest clue. For all you ETers... don't listen to this bozo. His post is pure garbage. He couldn't be more wrong if he cut his own head off.

What bad? You got to check into hotel for 7 days with black hair fox!

And the town of Truckee California and the Truckee river were named after a Paiute chief.