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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-19/top-recession-indicator-makes-a-lousy-sell-signal-for-stocks?utm_source=twitter&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-markets&utm_content=markets&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social "Investors ought to get bearish on U.S. stocks not when...

If I lived in San Francisco and could meet with ICO founders and could see the great deals first (instead of last, like its happening right now), I would consider going into ICOs big time. But I dont have that option, so they at this point, I just consider them high beta plays on BTC. Owning...

This is similar to the Dalio principle that instead of buying illiquid alternatives to an investment (say private equity, instead of public stocks) its better to leverage up on its liquid brother/sister (ES futures for instance). He did some backtests on that and that's how Risk Parity was born...

So as an invesment, I think they make little to no sense but as an speculation I think they are just inferior to the alternative which is: If someone has 2% on BTC and 1% in ICOs in their portfolio, its probably better to just have 4% on BTC rather than any in the ICOs. That way you get that...

The big issue is that when VCs give $10m-$20m (what a typical ICO can raise) in an equity invesment (tipically a Series A or B) they have so many requirements that 95%+ of ICOs would not be able to meet. These requirements would involve traction, team quality, absence of red flags etc etc. Like...

With regards to ICOs, I have been changing my mind on it. After getting more experience and knowledge with regards to angel investing and VC, it seems to me that ICOs right now make little to no sense. This is a comparisson table I build that could contain some flaws but overall i think it...

There is still some smart people that believe in that CAPE method and similar mindsets. I actually got in an argument on twitter with Mebane Faber recently about that. I explained to him why that made no sense, he never made any real counter-point and just blocked me instead. Its almost uncanny...

You bring up great points, these points seem to have one thing in common, they embedd some sort of expectation for the future. In my view, in order to assess how attractive equities are one needs to look at current conditions and then make an assesement about how the future will change that...

I posted some backtests here https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/yales-risk-adjusted-returns-not-so-superior-firm-argues.320326/

I read the research, and it doesnt seem to be all that great They used 2003-2017 data to measure the Ivys performance. 2003 was the bottom for the bear market, there is only 1 bear market in their sample. So, they are talking about risk adjusted returns but there is not much risk in their...

Putting your email in that site to check for compromising events is pretty much harmless. Do you get a lot of spam? That means that your email has already been sold and is probably already a member of dozens of email lists that get passed around. But if your address, password hints, full name...

https://haveibeenpwned.com/ these breached databases are out there for anyone to take a look at. scary

" There were a number of vulnerabilities in Balina’s security which he admits were the cause of the hack. His main email account was backed up by an old college email account, long-since abandoned. In the event of Balina losing the password to his account, the college account could be used to...

ICO investor Ian Balina got hacked for over $2M https://www.ccn.com/ian-balina-hacked-for-millions-through-old-email-account/ Here are some of his mistakes that I can think of -Position sizing, he had over 95%+ of his networth in alt coins, which is just downright absurd. It was fun for him on...

"MPI finds that the Sharpe Ratio, a measure of returns relative to the risk taken, of all the endowments are very close to each other as well as to a 60/40 portfolio." I need to read the research in full but if thats what they used to measure risk adjusted returns, then the research sucks...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-asks-advisers-to-study-rejoining-pacific-trade-pact-talks-1523553620 It seems to me that the big difference between protectionism and Trump protectionism is that Trump and Co really think that free trade is good, they just go an unusual way to try to get to it...

Inflation has started to breakout some. I dont think the Fed will freak out about this but its something to monitor

Also, if this assesement of the cheapness of equities relative to rates is correct, it means that it would take a fair amount of surprises to the upside on rates before it truly impacts stocks. I mean truly impacts in the sense that it produces a significant decline in prices for a significant...

There is another indicator that the CAPE ties with in terms of regressions. A while back I tested Damodaran's Implied Risk Premium figure (which goes back to 1965) as a predictor of 10 year stock returns. The R2s came out pretty similar (0.56 for IRP vs 0.58 for CAPE). Right now his IRP figure...

The big difference between 1999/2000 and today that the CAPE cult doesnt bring up is the fact that in that year, the CAPE was in the sky but so was the forward PE. So the market was priced to perfection. Now the CAPE is high but the forward PE is not, its about avg. So the market is not that...