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This type of scrutiny leads to why I have a daytrading pattern which I believe is pretty good even though i never backtested it (only traded it). Find low float stocks that are up huge on the day, short them in the last hour of the day (and in the last hour only, cover by the close). A lot of...

He is running this giant spread trade of long value vs short momo (90% long 70% short IIRC), one of the worst trades to run at the late stages of a bull market. Well, until it isn't and it becomes a great trade. He is not a market timer (by his own admission) so he is getting hurt. It seems to...

Surround yourself with sucessful daytraders, thats how you learn

This makes sense if he has a good reentry strategy if he is wrong. Otherwise he can sell out hoping to buy everything 10% lower and then watch as the market grinds 5-10-20% a year for years without him and when its all said and done he missed a 50-100% move. Its similar to a short sale and thus...

The White House budget office now estimates that the deficit will rise to nearly $1.1 trillion in the fiscal year that begins this October, or 5.1% of gross domestic product, up from $984 billion projected in February’s budget proposal. The U.S. ran a deficit of $666 billion for the fiscal year...

Buffett is changing his buyback program https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17218670-berkshire-hathaway-amends-share-repurchase-program Now he will buyback stock at anytime he thinks the stock is undervalued. Very good news for stockholders. He's got over $100B in cash, if the stock doesn't rise, this...

One of my demons is my competitive nature (which steams back from having a lot of games being played with my siblings and wanting to win). I tend to be obssed with doing things perfectly and wanting to be the best. I have improved a ton, im probably less competitive now than in my entire life...

Absolutely. I guess when you dont have that much financial abundance it makes more sense to be 'unbalanced' for a while. But once one reaches it, its crazy to continue. The average person is in such a difficult position because they need 30-40 years to get there while a good trader just 5-10...

This whole "exit from the WTO" seems to be part of that act

Here is Trump being pranked by a comedy show He got into the call thinking he was talking to Democrat Bob Menendez. What is interesting to me is how nice and normal Trump sounds. Its the kinda of call you would expect from Obama, very diplomatic and polite. A lot of what Trump does (in terms...

And thats the thing, these are such new assets. There is so little data and stabilished history on them (and what we have is so surprising to everyone involved) that is VERY hard to be precise and KNOW things. As a result, anyone with common sense has to say 'shit, I just dont know'. That is...

I think some of this arises from seeing BTC as an 'invesment'. In investments, that kind of price patience makes sense (to a greater degree). I like to look at BTC more like as an perpetual (or really long-term) call option on speculation. The more uncertainty, the greater the value of that...

El-Erian is a buyer of BTC at $5K https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/29/el-erian-bitcoin-is-a-buy-below-5000-is-not-a-good-idea-for-all-.html?__source=twitter%7Cinternational I like his thinking but his trading/investing on this I dont agree. If he is wrong on waiting, it can run several times the...

Damodaran says Musk is lying about not needing to raise capital

But its a little tricky, the S&P500 forward PE is 16-17, there is a great story around earnings and the economy (and NK and in the future, I believe, in trade as well as the deals start to happen). If someone just bails out of the market now, they might miss out a big rally before that drop. So...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-24/legendary-investor-warns-frightening-recession-we-dont-have-any-stabilizers-left I agree, the next recession could be the US "UK 70's" moment. Stocks probably drop 50%+ and the dollar implodes as well (so the total loss to a non-US citizen might be as...

Anyone know?

According to my math here the loss of the Argentine peso since the Macri Election was 68%, the gain in the stock market was 141%

So Brazil is in quite a bit of trouble since the panic fuels higher interest rates (and higher inflation) and that makes the fiscal problems worse, which leads to higher interest rates, etc. Its a Soros downward spiral. But its tricky to say that this means the stock market is a sell. I was...

The assymetry is there but he didnt explain why the expected value is there. That same grandmother could put 0.5% of her portfolio in a single number in roulette, the payoff would be 35-1 (more than the 10-1 touted by the Goldman guy) and if she lost it would be 'no big deal'. Yet, the it would...