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The move from 5000 to 5576 mirrors the move from 2600 to 2900 on the SPX, which I alot of people will have a hard time buying, after having sold or passed at the lows of the year. But math wise it can still make sense. It isn't my case (I'm own as much in stocks as I can tolerate, if anything...

Lets say a stock market is trading a 5000 and an investor expects an 8% long-term return at that level, a quick rally to 5576 would decrease the expected return to how much? Answer: to 7.1%. And that assumes the rally did not reflect any positive change in the fundamentals I try to remind...

Pretty good article IMO https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-28/what-i-learned-sitting-trading-room-steve-cohen

New highs are a sign of more stock gains to come US leading economic indicators are pointing to growth, S&P500 forward PE is around 17ish and there was a 10% drop recently (which cleaned out speculators and weak hands). Things are looking pretty good for the next 12 months

In terms of negative people attracting other negative people and positive people attracting positive people, a great example is Buffett with his two lieutenants Todd and Ted. Buffett seems like a happy and positive person, he also said he would not work with a 'lemon' or people with bad...

Here is a quick estimate using the 13-Fs. The Stock exposure represents the bare minimum exposure, the actual exposure can be higher through the use of derivatives (I know that Tudor is big on using stock futures to get exposure, rather than actual stock picking) and also through non-US stock...

Here is a fun project I plan to do in the coming weeks, I want to go through the 13-Fs of major hedge funds that have decent track records. Then I will add up their stock exposure and calculate the exposure as a % of their AUM. To me this will tell me what they think of the economy, markets...

An example of threshold theory. I recall that in late 2016 early 2017 someone asked Ray Dalio about the stock market, he called it "modestly attractive". Then the reporter asked "but what about this foreign policy issue" (IIRC, it was North Korea). Dalio said "every year there are concerns like...

As if it werent enough to have to deal with these issues, there is another reason why people with bearish tendencies are wrong to be the way they are. Most shorts are glass half-empty kind of people. Thats one of the reason why they became shorts. This sort of attitude not only is bad for...

Here is a good heuristic for analyzing the stock market (a convexity market) that would fix a lot of issues with investors: "When someone presents a case about why the stock market is headed for a fall, be open but be very skeptical about it, demand a lot of evidence, a lot of conviction before...

Here is a good heuristic for analyzing the stock market (a convexity market) that would fix a lot of issues with investors: "When someone presents a case about why the stock market is headed for a fall, be open but be very skeptical about it, demand a lot of evidence, a lot of conviction before...

Other at the very least, the THRESHOLD to get bearish should be higher than the THRESHOLD to get bullish. So if someone presents a very good bear case for bitcoin and someone else presents a very good bull case, a rational investor might think its 50/50 on who is right. But he will still invest...

I find it really annoying when people really bash with a lot of bravado tech companies (usually that are up massively in recent years) but then say 'I wouldn't short it at all'. It seems to me that the confidence that they display should be brought DOWN by the fact that they are afraid of having...

Good point by Taleb here. Its similar to my case. Bitcoin is a call option on blockchain speculation/sentiment, options benefit from uncertainty. For the intelectually honest (or those with skin in the game) there is a LOT of uncertainty of where Bitcoin will trade at in the future, therefore it...

AWX sued Mint broker for running a pump and dump campaign on its stock, violating the short swing profit rule. Claims Gentile had a bunch of folks buying up the stock to avoid having to report the stake himself. AWX claims Gentile controlled as much as 60% of the float at one point...

IB got this minimum activity fee but if you have between $10K and $100K, you will also earn interest in your cash balances. Which offset that. You can even earn interest on the first 10K by buying UST bonds, most brokers wont let you do that

Good call, I was wrong. Looks like Musk is lot more mentally disturbed than I assumed. I thought he wouldn't go that far to the point of making the whole thing up but a go private consideration that lasted 17 days shows that the whole thing was a charade designed to create pain to the shorts...

https://www.investopedia.com/news/interactive-brokers-eliminates-10000-account-minimum/

A lot of the direction of Brazil will depend on the election. I'm quite optimistic about the outcome. I see as quite unlikely for Lula to run for president. The Supreme court has ruled (twice) that a criminal defendent cannot be in the presidential succesory line (Speaker of the House, Senate...

With this Trump thing, I mentioned it before, I believe Trump will eventually be impeached (or at least, will face the proceedings). Mainly because the collusion with the Russians did occur and he knew/ordered the whole thing (Abramson on twitter does a decent job listing the evidence of that...