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I decided to calculate my exposures to see what are my main risks and also in the spirit of transparency. As I have been saying, I believe that talk is meaningless, ALL that it matters when it comes to truly knowing what someone thinks, its their actual trades/investments It turns out that my...

The thing about these long 100% short 50% type funds is that they tend to do great during market corrections but during good years, they tend to produce worse risk adjusted returns as the squeezes happen. Hempton said in one of his latters that in late stages of bull markets thats when his...

I see that Hempton has closed his funds for new investment. I respect that move a lot. He only has $500M in assets and closed. He also openly admits that his shorting is not scalable. He is the opposite of Einhorn. Einhorn thought he could scale shorting to billions and billions. Furthermore he...

https://files.brontecapital.com/amalthea/Amalthea_Letter_201712.pdf An interesting letter from Hempton. I'm not sure he can do what he claims to do (be able to put 40-60% of assets in shorts consistently, without hurting his risk adjusted returns) but I do like some of his thinking. He is...

Speaking of Einhorn

It just struck me that one way to avoid a lot of these problems is to buy puts in stocks instead of shorting the shares. The nice thing about puts is that they FORCE you to time the move (which leads the investor to HAVE to deal with the 2nd way bulls make money). One cant cop out and talk...

Following some of these lessons, I have to consider that perhaps I'm suffering from the same problems i did back in 2009. Maybe I'm being influenced by articles, writers and certain statistics. Its possible that perhaps I'm too bullish when I should be neutral or cautious (with markets at...

I was reviewing my journals in ET from back in 2008 and 2009 to review some of my mistakes and learnings from those years. It was amazing what happened around Feb/Mar 2009. Here are some of my posts, here I was arguing FOR the idea of buying stocks in Feb 2009 "So I'm not enthusiastic about US...

Consumer sentiment beat expectations today, inflation expectations in it are at 4 year highs. Yet bonds are up on the day. This is a classic market tone divergence. If the market cant fall on 'bad news', its going higher

Stocks are supposed to be risky arent they? a loss of 25% to quadruple your money with dividends sounds pretty good to me

You were prescient sir

This is great, the accredited investor BS needs to go. Let everyone do what they want with their money. Losing can teach people a lot

A good side benefit of this trade is that I'm quite long in stocks, especially US stocks. I havent run the numbers but its around 70-75%. And the rest is in gold and cash. The cash portion I usually keep in long-term US bonds to create a 'hedge' effect during stock panics and recessions. But...

Inflation at a 6 year high, economy doing great and UST bonds are up on the day (even before the tarrifs). COT reports a record number of shorts and sentimentrader.com also reports record bearishiness. I bought US 10y bond futures today. I'm expecting a rally as yields suprise everyone by doing...

You are the average of the 5 people you surround yourself with

Yes. Short-term trading is my main source of income, my secondary income being investment income deriving from past trading gains that now I invest

Here is the Druckenmiller anecdote

What is interesting about NFLX, AMZN, TSLA and some other tech companies is that they do have products and services that people love. The result of that is that it probably makes it MORE likely that the 2 other ways longs make money (speculation, bullish surprises) will end up playing out...

Einhorn seems to be a great example of someone blindly applying Buffett principles to other forms of investing that Buffett did not endorse his method to. He is a pure fundamentalist trying to apply that strategy to shorting. Now, maybe Einhorn is completely and 100% right about the fundamentals...

So I was reading Einhorn Q2 letter and what struck me is his comment of 'we have increased the usage of put options in the short book' (instead of short sales), he also mentioned managing down his position sizes. This COULD save his career, although given the positive outlook for US equities...