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Did a quick change of plans. ISM mfg beat expectations by a lot and 10y bonds sold off quite a bit. This is inconsistent with my thesis that the market was shrugging off bad news. So I liquidated my futures. I will reenter if tone and/or price action improves

If there a way to quickly calculate these stats? Either at account management or through a website that imports IB data and calculates it for you? I could not find something like that on AM and I dont want to spend hours doing it on excel

I tried to do that a while back but I dont have enough data. Point is, I wont wait for the recession declaration or anything like that, but rather to bailout when I asses the risks of a recession are high enough. But this particular return set doesnt depend on recession calls or anything like...

What are the risks of a significant market drop without a recession? S&P500 corrections outside of a recession There has been 8 corrections that I could deem 'significant', that is greater than 15%. Anything less than 15% I would consider noise and just a typical stock market fluctuation...

Its interesting, because for an EM citizen, it seems to be a nobrainer to load up in USD assets (or another safe haven). The scenario where he gets hurt (the EM currency keeps going up and up), is not so bad. Usually the EM economy will be doing great, jobs will be everywhere, incomes will be...

Good question. I have been thinking about that recently. My usual balance is 50% Safe Haven Currencies (Which in recent years I have been using USD, but it could be any of the other ones) 40% BRL and 10% Gold. I do have a fair amount of costs in USD, like software fees, travel expenses...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4202626-sa-interview-whitney-tilson-important-question-investor-needs-answer Whitney Tilson's interview with Seeking Alpha "Since I closed my funds last September and received cash (along with all of my investors) a few weeks later, I’ve primarily been focused...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/buy-turkey-and-argentina-emerging-markets-arent-bargains-they-seem-1535988617

One of the REITs that I'm long (the biggest in the country) has a balance sheet like this: $630M in assets $58M in liabilities $580M in equity $49.5M of those liabilities are obligations due real estate acquisitions. Its great that they dont let the REITs go nuts on debt in Brazil. The US could...

The lefist candidate Haddad (Lula's substitute) is growing on the polls. And who knows, he might win. But he recently said that entitlements 'should not be considered taboo'. He doesnt seem all that bad honestly. But its a big unknown what he would do if elected

Just a gut feeling based on my backtests, experience and data. In my case, I'm long Brazilian REITs. By law they are not allowed to lever up like US REITs. They also pay tax free dividends. I tend to think of them more as higher risk fixed income rather than stocks. In the US, they might deserve...

On the listed markets, that's pretty much the ones that I'm trading (and know). I'd note that CVSI is OTC, although I do think they will be listed in a few months as they are trying to and according to my research, they meet the criterias for the Nasdaq Capital Market and Nasdaq Global Market...

Hi, yes they are all 100% long positions. I wouldn't short them right now (except MAYBE IGC, due their oustanding shelf but its tricky because its a hugely crowded short, so its high risk and high reward. its not OTC but its kinda like it). There will be a time to short them but its when they...

How much have you made off those predictions?

Thats whats great about the article, it gives a realistic picture of what Tesla is doing without being overly biased. But the bottom line is that Tesla is not only competing with other car companies (which they would have no problem beating) but with Google and other tech companies because they...

https://www.ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2018/8/29/tesla-software-and-disruption

I also need some cash balances in some of my brokers to run day and swing trades with. These brokers often don't allow the trader to buy t-bills. IB seem unique in that regard, which is very nice. If I keep $50K balance in a broker without being able to buy T-Bills, that is an extra $1K a year...

Hi the difference is not that big (I try to buy 2%+yielding 1-2y T-bills with my excess cash whenever I can) but more importantly, I find that having the futures gives me mental flexibility. It feels more like a trade rather than an investment, so if the bond bear returns, I will get out of the...

My Weighted Risk to Hedge Ratio Now: 4.36 Typical 'balanced' AA portfolio(30% stocks, 55% 10y bonds, 15% gold): 1.48 Berkshire Hataway now (157% stocks + businesses, 31% cash)*: 33.76 Druckenmiller now, based on his 13-F filling (50% stocks, 50% cash)*: 6.67 Einhorn now (95% stocks, 7% gold...

With regards to the Risk to Hedge ratio and the weighting, I did my first estimate Risk/Hedge Total is the risk weighting multiplied by my exposure. My scores will change in the future as I think more about how one asset compare to another but I think my overall goal will be to keep my...