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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Thank you, I appreciate that
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    When convexity is involved what is not in most people's data is more important than what is in it
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    lol what? You were talking about inflation, which affects a lot more the investment/store of value aspect than payments
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I actually live in a developing country and there are plenty of financial commitments that are made in USD instead of the local currency. People are aware of the risks and they are fine with it. Using Libra would be the same
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    well, apparently you never heard of diversification
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Who said it includes EM countries? Furthermore the US has had 200% inflation in the past, Germany a lot more, study history a little bit
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    From the whitepaper "Where is the money for the reserve coming from? The money in the reserve will come from two sources: investors in the separate Investment Token, and users of Libra. The association will pay out incentives in Libra coin to Founding Members to encourage adoption by users...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    From the Libra's paper: "The reserve is the key mechanism for achieving value preservation. By fully backing each coin with a set of stable and liquid assets (described later) and by working with a competitive group of exchanges and other liquidity providers, users can have confidence that they...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    This is a big reason why I'm long. BTC is like a call option. You describing something that has a lot of uncertainty. Uncertainty benefits options. The more we dont know, the more I want to lean towards being long (with an adequate position size). The idea of shorting BTC is so crazy to me...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    BTC has value because people rightly or wrongly consider it a good store of value. Just like Gold is worth trillions because of that. It might not make sense to Warren Buffett but it makes sense to the millions of people that price it, so it will continue to have value until they decide differently
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Yeah but there is a difference between wash trading and pegging an asset to a fake (non-equilibrium) value. I see wash trading in penny stocks all the time, it makes the stock appear strong, it shows up in people's trading scanners, it gives technicians and even non-technicians people confidence...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I dont believe BTC is manipulated in a large scale, here and there? Sure but these days BTC is a $100B-$200B "stock". It trades $10-$30B dollars a day. I have seen a LOT of manipulation in my life (I'm primarely a OTC stock trader) and I have serious doubts that something so big and liquid can...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Short-term this might be the top but I doubt it stops. This is like a train where a lot of people know it has left the station, as soon as it stops people will jump on board (buy the dip). Again, dont understimate this libra thing, 2 billion people (ok less but at least 1 billion, and it rises...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    And BTW, Roubini has little to none of the traits that I see as beneficial for BTC trading. He is just a loser economist, a one hit wonder really. If you want to see read good commentary on this space look for the top guys in Silicon Valley. They understand a lot better, even if only...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    But its funny this BTC. I was talking to a buddy and told him that BTC was due a correction at 10K, I thought the same at 11k, 12k, 13k and 14k. At 14K it finally came and yet it was still 2K higher than where I originally thought it was due for a correction. This is TYPICAL in convexity...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Yes, it wont be easy but of course they can comply with money transfer rules. There are literally thousands of banks and non-banks that do that. FB has managed to track and target almost 30% of the planet. Creating a payment system with KYC and that bans certain places is nothing. Of course...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    "Your source is vox?" My source is the Facebook spokesperson they talked to, who is a lot more credible than a random idiot from the internet
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    "“Calibra won’t be available in US-sanctioned countries or countries that ban cryptocurrencies,” a Facebook spokesperson told TechCrunch, eliminating China, North Korea, and Iran on the first point, and India on the second." "And the value of libra — which Facebook is imagining as a new global...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Dude, are you fucking mad? No you cannot do that, and I doubt they will ever let you do that. You are building up a strawman and then taking it down. This thing is not finished yet and what you describe would not likely be allowed. Again, they will do like Paypal does, I'm sure the will be...
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    Bitcoin future (BRR) at IB, 200,000 USD margin requirement?

    How many liquid assets have gone from 5 cents to 20,000 in 10 years? This ain't corn dude
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