Search results

There is a 99% chance this 'package' is not worth more than $50 (ie you could just bought an options book and learned the same thing). Talk to a trusted lawyer to see if you can sue to get the money back

I wonder how the backtest for BHC (old VRX) looks like

Here are some spoilers to the thread

Finished 2019 with a pretty nice return of 19.7%, a few percentage points ahead of my 'benchmark' the Dalio All Seasons portfolio. In terms of portfolio contribution the main contributors were: Since pretty much everything was ripping up, I had no significant losses. I did lose a little on...

You could organize street riots in the EU, asking for the ECB to raise interest rates. Other than that I dont see how you can do much about it

IMO, any OP that requires people to open a terminal is useless to 95%+ of the population

I could if I had the data but I havent found it anywhere. I mean, long-term data (going back to the 20s). Gold is sorta similar due being a real asset and being protected against inflation so it could be considered a proxy

Sorry, there is no portfolio that will have a max long-term drawdown of 5%. I'm talking in real terms here. 100% t-bills had a -48% dd in real terms during 1933 all the way to 40's period. 100% bonds were down in real terms during the 1940 to 1980 period (-57% max dd). Thats 40's years without...

OP, what is your drawdown tolerance, in % terms?

Read about Dalio's All Seasons portfolio, its a way to earn some equity premium while minimizing drawdowns

From the article: “We have to discourage savings in a currency that we don’t make, which is dollars.”. I laughed out loud

1. I used the S&P Composite Index from the Robert Shiller website 2. I dont think there is any way to backtest that for long periods since options started in the 70's. But when talking about the barbell he specifically mentioned startups. So my barbell is not exactly like his but its similar in...

VT is probably a good global ETF, its still US heavy but at least half of it isn't. But as far as leverage is concerned, I still dont like the idea. I just have seen this stuff blow up in too many countries to be comfortable (Iceland was another one I forgot to mention). You can use 'natural'...

Fun fact: The worse time for portfolios like this in the US were not in the 1930's, 1970's or 2008 if you can believe that. It was in the 1940's. That was when the optimal portfolios had its worse max real drawdown. It happened because of inflation was hurting stocks and bonds, meanwhile the...

I have run backtests similar to yours going back from 1926 to 2017 on US data, as well as UK data going back a century plus Greece and Brazil data for tail event testing. What I discovered is that 'balance' is achieved by building a Taleb like 'barbell portfolio'. You have arrived at the same...

Does with come with a residential property?

I just tripled my position in Greek stocks, also bought some for my swing account. I like the chart, I like their economic numbers and I like the fact that no one is talking about Greek stocks

As I understand a listing in Germany can be traded in France and etc. Since when that has been the case?

Its a tough time for macro: "Dalio's fund had peak returns of 45% in 2010 and 25% in 2011, but has struggled since then. His flagship fund returned an annualized 3.8% since the beginning of 2012, even with last year's 15% gain. This lags other well known funds like Jeff Talpins’s Element Capital...

As I understand, you pay the short interest fee during that period as well