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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Thanks for the info. I was thinking of one way that this corona thing might actually be bullish is the following: things will be in this standstill for a quarter or two, but that creates pent-up demand from the people stuck at home because they are not spending. When things normalize, or even...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    A big part of my thesis in China is the following, what if somehow you went back in time to 1950 but lost all your memory. But them a certain individual came up to you and explained what happened. He also told you "The United States stock market will be the best market for the next 50 years...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I'm using US ETFs: FXI, KWEB, ASHS London: CNYA (LSE) But its my intention to sell the FXI and substitute for the hong kong equivalent (HK: 3040) in order to save on the tax withholding of dividends (HK doesnt have it). KWEB and ASHS pay so little in dividends that I dont care I'm basically...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    These chinese stock ETFs are pretty interesting. They trade at 14-18 PE ratios(12 forward PE for the MSCI China Index), 2% div yields, 1.7 book value and they are off more than 50% of their all time highs. That in a world of zero to low interest rates. And most investors dont seem to care about...
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    Sweet Bobby the Super Trader

    Now just watch as he tries to monetize this 'blog' in the future. I bet he will try to sell this crap spreadsheet or maybe sell a 'course' on options
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    Shkreli at court

    lol, this has to be the most ridiculous indictment ever
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    M2 growth and excess reserves prove that Fed is indeed engaged in QE4

    Since the Fed's balance sheet changed direction September 2019 it has expanded by $400B, yet excess reserves is only up by $200B. Excess reserves data appear to lag the balance sheet data by a few weeks but still. A lot of the Fed new money creation does not appear to be deposited to earn the...
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    M2 growth and excess reserves prove that Fed is indeed engaged in QE4

    These Fed operations that increase excess reserves will only not impact the money supply (and other things like stocks, consumer goods, etc) if 100% of the reserves the primary dealers get stay with the Fed. But why would that be the case? In 2008 they created a program with the sole purpose of...
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    M2 growth and excess reserves prove that Fed is indeed engaged in QE4

    When the Fed's balance sheet exploded after Lehman in 2008, the same thing happened In 2008 they had a program to PREVENT this from happening, the US Treasury would issue T-Bills with the sole purpose to 'sterilize' the Fed activities (The so called "Supplementary financing program"). A while...
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    M2 growth and excess reserves prove that Fed is indeed engaged in QE4

    And of course, some of this cash is finding its way to the stock market, consumer goods, etc, etc
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    M2 growth and excess reserves prove that Fed is indeed engaged in QE4

    "Currency and money in checking accounts (demand deposits). Traveler's checks are also a component of M1, but are declining in use. M2 includes all of M1, plus savings deposits, time deposits like certificates of deposit, and money market funds." To the extent that these non-PD put their funds...
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    M2 growth and excess reserves prove that Fed is indeed engaged in QE4

    reserves can LEAD to higher M2 to the extent that the reserves are used to buy assets from non-primary dealers
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    I trade equities better than futures, WHY?

    Futures markets tend to be more liquid and more efficient. There are less easy $ opportunities vs equities that are in play
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    Whats the best way to buy HK stocks through IB while asleep?

    This duty sucks but I guess its better than the US 30% withholding of dividends to non-US investors. I'm trying to avoid that
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    One thing that makes me bullish is the fact that the stock market has gone nowhere for more than 1 decade Meanwhile the economy and profits have boomed. Equities are 50% bellow their all-time high, that's usually a good time to buy. Another reason if the fact that China has such a great...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I'm taking advantage of this strong stock market to rebalance out some US and Brazil equity exposure and buy Chinese equities. Meaning I'm selling 10% of some positions here and there (PSH, EWZ, etc) and buying some Chinese ETFs. I'm very long-term bullish on China and this virus thing looks...
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    Whats the best way to buy HK stocks through IB while asleep?

    Lets say I want to buy some HK:3040 but I dont want to be up late at night, I just want to send an order that will have a resonable fill automatically. On the NYSE I can just send an OPG order and I will get the opening auction which usually is a fair price with good liquidity. Is there an...
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    M2 growth and excess reserves prove that Fed is indeed engaged in QE4

    The Fed is pouring more vodka in instead of taking away the punch bowl
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    Same Day Wire Transfers From IB to International Bank

    Perhaps crypto can help with that, I know you can make lots of transfers at low fees with BTC lightening network
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    IB sent me email asking for routine interview, what is it?

    I was interviewed about a number of wire transfers a couple years ago. They wanted to know if the brokerage accounts that I was wiring the money from (to IB) had the same entity name as my IB account. I showed the brokerage statements and everything was fine
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