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I wouldn't extent this logic to some of the more troubled co's out there. Because they might be low in cash and i bet some of them go out of business (so you never get the long-run). But BRKB has over $100B in cash. SPY is probably safe too (because its so diversified, also one company's bk is...

Also, the value of long-term cashflows becomes more significant with low interest rates, that is because the rate that is used to discount long-term cashflows is lower. Fed will probably cut rates to 0% and do QE until the cows come home

Here is why I'm not too concerned too about coronavirus: ---------------------------------------------- Multistage Growth Model Formula This model is used to depict a more realistic scenario where the dividends are not expected to grow at a constant rate so you must evaluate each year’s...

Generals fight the last war, banks are well capitalized this time. My rough calculation shows I'm down -10% YTD. With SPX down -26% or so, its not so bad. I still have 30% or so of dry power (cash + gold) left. I dont think I will have any bellow SPX 2350 cuz at that point, if you ain't buying...

sure but I'm not buying them. I'm buying stuff like BRKB which has the best US companies. Plus Buffett should get some sweet heart deals

Yeah, if I play this properly I might be able to retire from daytrading. I want this SPX down -30% from peak on a virus, it will be the best opportunity im going to have while I'm young

That said, I'm not rushing in the buys. I think I have about 40% of cash and gold left at this point and I will be patient in my buys

More panic in the markets, my plan is to keep adding stocks like BRKB all the way down. Ideally I will be 80-90% in equities if/when SPX reaches -30%/-35%. I really think is the opportunity that I missed in 2009 because I was too inexperienced and couldn't keep my head straight while everyone...

Bill Ackman UP on the year despite market crash https://pershingsquareholdings.com/pershing-square-holdings-ltd-releases-communication-to-shareholders-weekly-net-asset-value-and-year-to-date-return-as-of-9-march-2020/ https://www.pershingsquareholdings.com/company-reports/weekly-navs/ I took a...

"As a result, the Chinese have dropped the Re (the Effective Reproductive Rate) of COVID19 from ~3.8 new cases per extant case to ~0.32. When this number is below 1.0, the epidemic extinguishes (at least it will, for a while, within China)." I added to BRK.B, EWZ at open today. Sold the last of...

Bridgewater also said that in the last 2 weeks they saw a pickup in activity in China

Also, your portfolio might 'hold up' to rates up to 6% but if it goes to 4.5%+ for all intends and purposes you will be wiped out because -It might take more than a decade for you to make your money back (maybe even more when you consider inflation) -You might stop using the strategy because...

So you are young and are looking to increase returns by taking on more risk. I would suggest you wait for better market conditions to jack up your leverage, now after a historical bull run in both stocks and bonds, it just seems a terrible time to jump in with a lot of leverage in both. Wait for...

I have run a lot of backtests in portfolio design and I think what you are doing is not a good idea. If there is a bear market in stocks driven by a rise in interest rates (say in an inflationary enviroment) you are going to be pretty much wiped out. That's what happened in the 70's. If there is...

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/my-thoughts-coronavirus-ray-dalio/?articleId=6640623255357005825

How much did he lost in the last few years?

Given the media and overall panic about this virus situation, it looks likely to me that this reduced connectivity is being achieved. This also gives more credibility to the China data, I mean, they did quarantine entire cities, they have drones monitoring people, they have sound boxes outside...

I'd note that it you might want to price the rate your friend will pay on the same day as you sell the SPX box. Its likely that either the Fed will cut rates or that they wont (but the market is pricing cuts) and this can affect market rates quite a bit

I also think there is a decent chance that GILD's drug remdesvir will work against coronavirus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remdesivir I mean, it already works against other 2 types of corona (MERS and SARS). And they are doing a 1000 patient Phase 3 with novelcoronavirus patients. So if they...