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they went into a flame fest on twitter. Assness deleted his tweets but Taleb took screenshots of it Its fun but like most things on twitter its hard to tell what people really mean with all the size limitation on the messages

Some bs about MJ (specially cbd) being good for covid patients. I think it was on the WAPO journal. Only way I can see this is true is by getting people with sleep problems to sleep better, cuz sleep disruptions lower T-cell activity (immune system)

And because interest rates will not be raised until all these deleveraging is done (which will take a long-time), gold (and to some extent bitcoin) just looks better and better by the day

So I was doing some data work to find out how the 'beautiful deleveraging' worked out in the US after the 2009 crisis and here are the results: Households have done a great job deleveraging, so did the banks and state and local governments. The corporate sector didnt do was good as job. So I...

Good vid talking a bit about the science of Covid

Well, a depression seems a given now. By definition -10% GDP is a depression and that looks likely to me. As far as timing goes, yes I could be early but I'm not shorting QQQs it so I dont need to time it. I'm simple steeping aside and looking for alternatives. Trends dont last forever, and US...

Thing is, trends can't be looked in a vaccum. They need to be reassed whenever there is a catalyst. And this catalyst is gigantic, the largest we will see in our lifetimes. And I just dont see how there will be a resumption of the stable disequilibrium 'buy the dip, TINA' market. Even if it...

Here is another reason why I'm skeptical of US stocks. The US deficit is going to be 30% after the Pelosi bill (assuming they cut it from the current price tag of $3T, if not it will be higher). And then its going to stay high for YEARS to come. Who is going to pay that bill? It cant be...

Just today I heard a podcast talking about how a corona vaccine is likely to have the same effect as the flu vaccine, that its effectiveness will be limited and you will have to retake every year (how they would vaccinate 7B people every year is beyond me). I cannot tell how likely this is to be...

The S&P forward PE is 20x, the highest since 2002. In a period where honestly, this is the first since I started to macro trade where I have no idea what will happen. In 2008/2009 it was horrible but even at the lows of the market I had an idea of what would happen. I was completely wrong of...

Canary in the coal mine? One of the best banks barely participated in the rally, now its a 52w lows I'm more defensive than ever when it comes to US risk assets

If the "1-2% of assets in bitcoin" idea becomes popular among the HF world, BTC will explode

Yes its a scam but its likely to go up so who gives a shit?

He also makes a very good case why that based on fundamentals, bitcoin is actually undervalued. Its worth $161B right now, vs $10T of gold. But if you go down the list, bitcoin stacks up nicely vs gold as a store of value. Dalio says bitcoin is too volatile to be a store of value, apparently he...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/great-monetary-inflation-ptj-explains-why-bitcoin-will-dominate-gold-stocks-public-trust Great letter from Tudor Jones talking about the crisis. I used to check M2 quite a bit but forgot to look at it lately. He is talking about how its growing at an absurd...

I recently sold my BRKB and PSH and bought some chinese stocks. I'm confused and unclear as to what it is going to happen in the US, even after Coronavirus as the US deficit will reach 22% of GDP in the context of record levels of debt. I do believe that Chinese will be better positioned to...

A slide from Buffett's annual meeting. He followed this by saying that 'markets can do anything'. He isnt buying, he is selling. The man thinks thre will be a depression he just doesnt have the guts to say it. This rally is a good opportunity to size down risk and put hedges on

I reshorted SPY, looks like this week was the top

I gave up on the SPY short today after the GILD news. If this market were to somehow 'restest the low', that would be a buying opportunity so it would be a benign drop. But I doubt its even going to do that

" Many rich-world governments pursued this sort of strategy after the second world war with some success. At its wartime height, America’s public debt was 112% of gdp, Britain’s 259%. By 1980 America’s debt-to-gdp ratio had fallen to 26% and Britain’s to 43%. Achieving those results involved...