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So I was thinking about the "Lindy effect" that Taleb talks about. The idea that things that have survived for a period of time are likely to survive for another similar period of time. So if bycicle has existed for 200 years, its likely to exist for another 200 years. That is all fine and dandy...

BTC historical volatility From all the talk about how crazy the volatility of 2020 has been, its actually bellow historical averages and the trend seems to be down

Yes there is no limit to the creation of new blockchains/coins. Just like there is no limit in the creation of uber-like software, or facebook competitors. That doesnt mean that the new software or websites are going to get people participating on it in any meaningful way, or that they are going...

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/why-does-bitcoin-have-value This a brillant article talking about why BTC has value. When Dalio says "bitcoin is backed by nothing" it goes to show how much he sucks analyzing technology, that above makes the case that is the payment channel that gives value to...

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/why-does-bitcoin-have-value If Murray Rothbard were alive and understood BTC, I think he would like it very much

Probably a nice time to start buying long-term puts on TSLA now that this idiot is puking

Out of curiosity, what would happen to this position if the Chris Cole scenario where to play out? https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5581f17ee4b01f59c2b1513a/t/561dc4cce4b00071739da90b/1444791500013/Artemis+Capital+Q12012_Volatility+at+World%27s+End.pdf That is, SPX goes to 10,000+ in a...

Absolutely. But I learned one thing in my life that I find it useful with regards to filtering out the noise. I listen to people that are especialists. If I have a kidney problem I listen to a kidney doctor, etc. The first thing I want to know before I listen to a person is 'who is this...

The Brazil government just raised USD bonds at: 5 year USD bond - 2.2% 10 year USD bond - 3.45% 30 year USD bond - 4.5% Usually the government law for these bonds is NY I'm not sure what are the implications of this but I thought this was an interesting fact. I bought some of these BR USD...

Here are some other names that will change their mind on BTC in the future: Hugh Hendry, John Hempton, Ray Dalio, David Tepper They all suffer from the issue of not having done any real due diligence on it so as a result, they dont even know what they are looking at. But they are not dumb and...

You nailed, if these skeptics had wrote down the price of BTC when they first uttered their criticism and opened a 5-10% "virtual short" on the BTCUSD pair, they would be down so much. Maybe even more than their whole networth. Its the fact that they have no skin in the game that enables them to...

"This year’s Bitcoin rally has caught many smart people by surprise. Last week’s high was just below the peak of the last rally ($19,892 according to the exchange Coinbase) in December 2017. When Bitcoin subsequently sold off, the New York University economist Nouriel Roubini didn’t hold back...

That says everything about the potential of the trade. Everytime you are super afraid of shorting something, you ought to consider being long

well, this site is called Elitetrader not Elitethinkers so yeah

I guess you never met a gold bug, they do the same but with a metal

Bitcoin is a network, all this "pumping" increases the reach of that network and makes it more valuable. Not much different from when people where recommending others to open a Facebook account back in 2009/2010. Good luck being on the other side of this trade

Its funny watching all these finance gurus and legends change their mind on Bitcoin. They claim to be so smart and to do their due diligence yet they are all changing their mind at the same time. What they were doing rather, was superficial analysis (full of biases) and now they are engaging in...

Yeah if it can happen to banks that have to obey capital rules and lend against houses (usually), imagine an online casino with no capital requirements where people do highly levered bets in a super volatile asset. The risks are even greater. If US stocks can flash crash and see stocks of...

Since these exchanges are unregulated, they dont have to keep any kind of minimum capital. As a result they can just treat their customers assets as the capital. Which is exactly what Kraken is doing by opening another company and treating their customers assets as unsecured creditors in a BK...