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I suspect Mohammed El-Erian used the same MINDSET he uses in traditional financial markets to sell his BTC at $19,000. He thinks he is being smart because in stocks, when people throw out crazy targets out there and the stock is up a lot, its probably time to sell. But in tech its DIFFERENT. Its...

But also the Thiel Rule highlights how in different markets there are different strategies. In stocks it doesnt make sense to "chase". In bonds the same thing. In technology it DOES make sense. It does not make sense to add to what's not working. Warren Buffet likes to buy what is dropping but...

I remembered today about what I called "The Peter Thiel Rule" What have you learned about Venture Capital now that you have been doing for so long? There are a lot of different lessons, one is that when something works, people often underestimate it and when things arent working, they...

Yes you get hurt more by the drops than rises but the rises are more frequent and larger. Up days are 54.55% of the sample, down days are 45.45%. In terms of large up days its 58% vs 42% large down. The overall result is that the surprises tend to be more of the good kind than of the bad

If I make a USD international wire transfer it will cost me $50 and take 2-3 days. With BTC it will cost me $3 and take 10 minutes. As for payments, that's what the lightning network is for, by the time its fully rolled out and most people are using it it will be too late to make a lot of money...

Most of bitcoin volatility is upside vol not downside, so its a good thing https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/some-bitcoin-volatility-statistics.353503/ Furthermore, why people use one of the elements in the periodic table as money/store of value (gold)? Because they decided they wanted to...

In Brazil you can, in Argentina they wont let you now. They are full of capital controls and just instituted a one time wealth tax of up to 5%. I can park my cash in US dollars which are depreciating or I can park in BTC, which appreciate every cycle. Sure it can crash but if you see the value...

May I ask, where are you from? Given your nickname and english I suspect you are from the US or UK. I'm from Brazil, in the 80's and 90's Brazil had over 6 currencies. All of them went to zero, the government also had capital controls so it was hard to buy dollars to protect savings. The only...

What would it take for your negative thesis to be wrong?

Here is a good FAQ on monetary policy https://www.themoneyillusion.com/faqs-2/ This part is particularly relevant right now " 9. Won’t your policies lead to high inflation in the long run? No, but not doing my policies might. Countries that follow conservative “hard money” policies during...

Well said. Andreessen is one of these assholes who can see the future in tech and make very smart and profitable bets. But he doesnt let other people came in with him, only him and his buddies, the cool kids club. Everybody else has to just watch and praise him for his foresight. Well BTC is...

Here is some interesting information about the volatility of BTC that doesn't get talked about much: BTC has had 144 "large up days", days where it went up by 10% or more (52.8% was the largest up day). It had 104 large down days, days where it went down by 10% or more (-38.8% was the largest...

Here is an interesting fact I learned running some statistics on bitcoin data: BTC has had 144 "large up days", days where it went up by 10% or more. It had 104 large down days, days where it went down by 10% or more. The kurtosis of the large up days is 5.94 whereas of down days is 3.27. That...

https://www.coindesk.com/bridgewaters-ray-dalio-softens-stance-on-bitcoin-says-it-has-place-in-investors-portfolios At this point who else needs to say BTC is a valid before the resident ET skeptics believe it is a valid store of value? Warren Buffett? Jerome Powel? Joe Biden? If PTJ...

Dalio throws the towel https://www.coindesk.com/bridgewaters-ray-dalio-softens-stance-on-bitcoin-says-it-has-place-in-investors-portfolios "In a Reddit Ask Me Anything (AMA) on Tuesday, Dalio said he thought bitcoin (BTC, -5.13%) and other cryptocurrencies had “established themselves” over the...

"Making subsidies explicit, however, is not always comfortable for the beneficiaries—or for regulators; obvious support attracts more public opprobrium. The real risk of cbdcs to the financial system may be that they eventually precipitate a new kind of run: on the idea that banks need to exist...

I suppose what can be said about the Fed policy is that it increases the tail risks. If velocity were to pick up and the Fed behaves like in the 1970's, the problem will be bigger due a bigger balance sheet (with bigger balance sheets comes bigger responsabilities). But if they behave like in...

The drop in velocity shows that people are HOARDING cash, that is not the case in inflationary economies where money is a hot potato and people try to leave the next guy holding the bag (certaintly that was not the case in the Weimer Republic). If velocity rises, then its an interesting question...

I supposed some people are afraid of the Fed policy because of the size of the balance sheet, but that chart needs to be deflated by the drop in velocity. If you take the net result of the Fed's QE's, M2 (since bank reserves are just sitting with the Fed) and take into account the drop of...

I disagree, I dont think the Fed's policy was crazy, in fact, I think it was underwhelming. Velocity of money went into a nose dive, they printed money to offset that but that offset was not enough. As a result nominal GDP went down. Its still bellow its peak even though its been about 3...