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    Brexit and IB

    The way to protect yourself is to move your assets into another broker if IB stock collapses by 60%+
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I would suggest you pick up Rogoff's book. His argument is actually more nuanced that it looks like. He is in favor of banning the $100 and $50 bills, not cash entirely. He just wants to make it hard to hoard cash, primarely due law enforcement reasons. These latinos or blacks could use $20 or...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    "And the pandemic has led to a burst of innovative government. Those which can afford it—and some, like Brazil’s, that cannot (see article)—have suppressed inequality by spending over $10trn on covid-19, three times more in real terms than in the financial crisis. That will dramatically reset...
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    Brexit and IB

    Pretty nice from IB to do this. Most other brokers would terminate your account and leave you hanging. IB is setup all over the world and can move clients around as insane governments shoot themselves in the foot
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    "As the world has adapted some of these iniquities have got worse. Studies suggest that about 60% of jobs in America paying over $100,000 can be done from home, compared with 10% of jobs paying under $40,000. As unemployment has soared this year, the msci index of world stockmarkets has risen by...
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    How to earn 21% risk free on USD

    Tradestation allows one to buy and custody BTC with them. Doesnt count as margins though but still, makes it easier to send cash back and forth between the crypto and the futures account.
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    Meet the anti-crypto crowd

    You are the king of stupidity on ET when it comes to crypto, congrats. You always struck me as a loser who never made any money in the markets, your post above just proves that
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    Can Bitcoin split - Example: 100 for 1?

    It could be done through a naming convention in the industry. To call one BTC, 1/100 of the current BTC. It can also be done through a fork but I doubt they would do that just for the psychological effect
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    Meet the anti-crypto crowd

    Here is my last attempt at converting the non-idiot skeptics. Paypal and Alipay are worth about half a trillion dollars combined. They are payment systems with all kinds of limitations, government controls, etc. But they are still useful. Bitcoin is like gold, is limited in supply and cannot be...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I found how to "lock" BTC to completely prevent it from being sold or transacted for a period of time. There is a functionality in the BTC protocol called CheckLockTimeVerify (CLTV). The issue is that most wallets, including hardware wallets, dont support it. There is an open source wallet that...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I also can lock and release in parts. I can lock it for 5 years and release 1/5 a year or something like that. But most will be free so I don't see a downside. I got plenty of cash for expenses
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Almost everyone who ever got involved in BTC would have benefitted from locking their BTC. Few had the discipline to not sell. Heck, some even giving them away early on. If BTC rushes to 100-150k, I might make a mistake and sell all. I want to idiot proof my strategy by locking in some. If I had...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    https://www.coindesk.com/kraken-exchange-integrate-bitcoin-lightning-2021 2 potential huge days are likely arrive to BTC at some point in the next few years. When Paypal allows BTC transfers and when Paypal integrates Lightning. The latter would be absolutely huge. Being a PAYMENT company, I'm...
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    Bitcoin/Ethereum Miners

    I have traded these over the years but I learned its imbesilic to do so. They are super risky and mostly scams, so when BTC tanks, people will dump these like no tomorrow. They will have WORSE risk adjusted returns than BTC. So if you are bullish BTC and want to make 2-1, buy twice as much BTC...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    It feels to me that BTC in 2021 will be the great divider in the HF world. The funds that bought and are riding it, will be making their clients pretty happy. That ones that don't are likely to be fired. If Warren Buffett can be criticized and have its stock halved for missing the tech trend in...
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    British fund firm Ruffer has 550 million stg bitcoin bet - spokesman

    "Made bet in November now worth around 550 mln pounds -spokesman" How many more investment funds are buying and will soon release their pr? BTC to 40K by March
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    So you believe these large overvaluations, that did not happen in previous periods of negative rates like the article I posted shows, are the result of the fact that the asset management industry is much bigger these days?
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Sure, there is the chance its all a mirage. But there is the chance that the tech is real. Dotcom investors got burned but 'true believers' in FB have not, they made a fortune instead. The key to me is to have a position that never gets sold (unless BTC rips 300% in a month or something) AND...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Meanwhile the CAPE is an almost complete joke. It just doesnt make any sense to analyze forward looking markets that have potential exponential payoffs by looking at an average of 10 year earnings. That's a sure fire way to miss an earnings boom that looks 'overvalued' for years. CAPE is like...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    To me that most worrying indicator is the Aggregate Price to 2021 Earnings Estimate. Depiste all the criticisms of analysts, I have found no difference in predictive power (measured as the returns within 5-10 years) between the CAPE, Trailing Earnings or the Forward Earnings. But the forward PE...
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