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    For those who doubt Bitcoin potential as a payment currency, try this

    I guess the United States is a medieval country then as my US accounts charge me $20-$50 for that
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    For those who doubt Bitcoin potential as a payment currency, try this

    Download the Wallet of Satoshi App or (if you care, as I do, about having custody of your bitcoin private keys) the app Muun. Deposit some bitcoin (lets say $500) from your exchange or your hardware wallet into that App. This should cost $10 or so but it can cost less if your hardware wallet...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    A good macroeconomics conversation about Japan and the US
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    So I decided to run some tests on the BTC Lightning Network to see how it is doing. This thing is insane, its so great I think its going to be outlawed in major police states (US, China, maybe EU). I have a graphics card that I bought a few years back to play around with mining, I use NiceHash...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    And these early institutional investors, I believe, are much stronger hands than retail. Its not that hard to shake retail out. But institutions are run by professional investors, they are not the greatest thing since sliced bread but I would imagine they will do a better job at managing their...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    So 2017 was a retail driven Crypto bull market, and a pretty good top indicator was when mainstream was going out of their way to talk about bitcoin. Like Kathy Perry and SNL bitcoin sketch. This time is a institution driven rally, so perhaps we ought to look at institutional contrarian...
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    Using Bitcoin historical prices to try to asses the current price potential of BTC

    Maybe a comet hits the earth and we all go extinct. here is a rule for your life, when dealing with exponential returns with limited risk, dont worry about small risks. If anything BTC is antifragile (Indeed, Taleb is long), the more uncertanty there is around its value, the more the chance it...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/using-bitcoin-historical-prices-to-try-to-asses-the-current-price-potential-of-btc.354558/
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    Using Bitcoin historical prices to try to asses the current price potential of BTC

    The following is a very rudimentary price prediction for bitcoin. I wouldn't use it to make decisions but rather just use as another input in a multi data input decision making model. That is more robust than making decisions solely on historical data, especially in an emerging technology...
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    Grayscale Holds Over 3% of Bitcoin, Sees Pension-Fund Interest

    These institutions are getting into GBTC through private offerings, they are not paying any premium
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    Grayscale Holds Over 3% of Bitcoin, Sees Pension-Fund Interest

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-07/grayscale-holds-over-3-of-bitcoin-sees-pension-fund-interest?srnd=premium “We’ve started to see participation not just from the hedge fund segment, which we’ve long seen participation from, but now it’s recently from other institutions...
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    The shift from Active to Passive Investment - How does it affect market valuations?

    passive funds are active funds managed by the indexing companies. discuss
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    Kamala wants a 0.2% transaction tax

    From what I have read about Section 31 the SEC does not have the authority to move the fee beyond the limit set by the law
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    So the Friedman article I posted here about a month ago talked about how in the 19 century and before the understanding was that the role of government in the economy was to be very limited. Gov spending was around 10% of GDP and I dont recall many issues with that, in terms of society being mad...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Compound pays 0.07% a year for ETH staking and 0.07% for BTC (actually Wrapped BTC but its the same thing) aave pays 0.31% for ETH and 0.02% for WBTC So I'm not seeing these great DeFi yields. Places like BlockFi pay more because they are essentially banks (so CeFi), subject to all kinds of...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    These Defi companies, as far as I know, they are open source. So I'm sure hackers are looking at their code trying to find bugs and sometimes they succeed (I heard of a case a couple months ago, I dont recall the name). That leads to a giant loss to the people that staked there. Also, how people...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    It will probably be less as I expect the ETH staked might reach its max at 10M (which will also remove that 10M from circulation, bullish for free ETH 1.0). To me the lockup is a feature not a problem, thats how VCs and founders get rich, they CANT sell, even if they wanted to. I dont want the...
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Here is a lesson that took me a long-time to learn: The vast majority of well known investing personalities (that ones that get asked to be on Bloomberg, CNBC and whose articles get spread around on the internet) are well known, not because they know what they are talking about, because they are...
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    Kamala wants a 0.2% transaction tax

    If a transaction tax happens then all company stocks will be a token on ethereum to dodge the tax
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    Global Macro Trading Journal

    The blue wave has arrived due the VP tie breaker vote. I wouldn't want to own much US tech stocks and US dollars in the next few years
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