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Not much slack. UR is around 6%, only 1% above the century average. No banking crisis, exposure to a V shaped asia. http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/110/images/3round-5.gif Canada which is supposed to be a AU type country has promised no hikes till Q2 2010. Another anchor to my ZQ trade...

I'm interested on fat tail oil calls as well. Which year are for those calls?I asked for a MM quote on the $200 CL 2016 Dec call and there werent too cheap And I'm not worried about a big sell off in the fed funds futures, I want them so I can buy more. My exposure right now there is not big...

I have limited knowledge about the RBA or the AU economy. Dont know much about the UK and the BOE so I rather stick with the US. Perhaps there is a lesson here, about sticking with you speciality. Niederhofer went big in Thai and got cleaned, the doves who bet big on the RBA got cleaned too

http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2009/dud091005.html Bernanke(chairman), Kohn(vice chairman) and Dudley(NY Fed) are all dovish. Looks like there are a few adults running the fed afterall Dudley even points out that the labor force is quite likely to rise on the labor market...

The 0 on the chart represents the NBER 'recession is over' call. Inflation tends to keep on falling The fed's 'money' printing, is monetary base(bank reserves) which is NOT inflationary until it becames M2 which is not happening mainly because banks are not lending money on a net basis So...

If the Fed prints more monetary base(increase their purchases and thats a big IF) deflation will taking over, the economy will be weak, thats hardly bullish for equities. I understand Faber is a government basher so I wouldn't take what he says too seriously as to what the Fed WILL do. If...

The Fed's Senion Loan Officer Survey disagrees with you. Banks are tightening standards and increasing spreads on interest rates over their cost of funds

Actually I neutral at the bottom(bought SPY at 730). Went net short through garbage stock puts at 820. Couldn't see that crisis of confidence being solved out of nowhere for no reason, all the government programs had failed to lift people up to that point. I was wrong(the goverment policies...

m22au, I'm of the opinion that if the goverment could prevent stocks from finding their fundamental value(eventually) the Nikkei would be at 100K. Nasdaq would be at 10K. I'm not even a bit concerned of the Fed inflating a inflation driven stock bubble, as their QE has failed to produce a...

Since government revenues are linked to nominal GDP, there is nothing spectacular about this

About the last employment report "Unemployment would have topped 10 percent if not for the more than half million Americans who left the workforce." http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601014&sid=aIQSkFg5czbg The way to see through the issue of people dropping out of the labor force...

Excellent article by Kessler http://www.zerohedge.com/article/kessler-market-commentary He says inflation picksup 1.5 to 3 years after recessions are over. 1-2 years for the 6mo annualized core CPI, since it will take a while for the Fed to be 'sure' inflation bottomed(5-10 months), a first...

Maybe they disagree on this, they run different funds after all

VERY interesting research by William Hester http://www.hussmanfunds.com/rsi/forwardearningsmargins.htm To me it seems like a nobrainer that when people get disappointed they will trash this stock market, specially in the context of a secular bear in stock and a financial crisis that is not...

Gross on CNBC His 'model' says core CPI is headed to 0%. Fed only raises after 12 months UR peaked and NFP is +200K monthly, looks easily like a 2011 story. Likes 10y 30y UST http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1282662790&play=1

Will buy XLF puts and short a bit of C on the break of the ES Globex low

U6-UR spread widened even more, this could also be used as a leading indicator, since there is no improvement it shows the worst labor market since the 30's is getting worse. Lacker might want to read the part of the mandate that says Fed is responsible for full employment before he checks in at...

Today is the day, depending if the selloff holds till the open I will buy more XLF puts here. Today could easly be one of those trend days where the market gets hammered all day long. VIX should open quite high too.

ES broke 50MA in the pre-open trading here. July NFP was revised quite lower. The fed hawkish brigade couldn't have timed their bluffs any worse "U.S. Sept. average workweek falls to 33 hours" - This is supposed to be a labor leading indicator

So I like the bet that the Fed will only raise rates by about 1-2 years after banks start to net loosen credit standards. The stock market looks headed to a 20-30% correction as economic pessimism takes over. I'm still short COF ACC CAL PPD(although I had to cut back some as they rallied), long...