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Does the RBA own 1/4(or whatever it is) of their gse MBS market?Do they own trillion in securities?Are their banks holding 6% of GDP in excess reserves? There is a difference between a central bank hiking when the CB dont own squat and banks are lending freely. In the case of the US a hike...

Look, everyone makes bad predictions. But Gross has been killing the market since the 70's. And Greenspan's opinions are VERY likely to correlate with most of the FOMC, that is my point. Not that he cant go wrong but that whatever his opinion is, is likely to be similar to Bernanke and co And...

One argument on why fed will be on hold here is using Pimco as a guide. They have access to Alan Greenspan, who knows/voted with tons of the people at the Fed. If there was an argument on why they would have to 'raise sooner rather than later' like Hoenig says, pimco would know and they would...

The new FOMC members for next year are * James B. Bullard, St. Louis(hawk) * Thomas M. Hoenig, Kansas City(mega hawk) * Sandra Pianalto, Cleveland(a woman, probably dove) * Eric S. Rosengren, Boston(dove, 'Voting against was Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred to lower the...

This guy is a torpedo aimed at the US economy. The Taylor rule suggests FF should be anywhere from 0.5% to -5%, where he is getting that 1-2% is accomodative is a mystery

Another one who will be checking in at urgently needed NY Fed Mental Health Center Hoening is quite hawkish, suggests hikes right now wouldn't be a big deal as a long rates would still be bellow the 'neutral rate' http://www.kc.frb.org/speechbio/hoenigpdf/Denver.Forums.10.06.09.pdf Lacker...

Another reason for a jobless recovery, small business are getting unusually hurt http://macroblog.typepad.com/macroblog/2009/10/prospects-for-a-small-business-fueled-employment-recovery.html

Why would this time be 'different'?

I would be in the bond bear camp if the next Fed Senior Loan Survey were to show banks loosening standards dramaticaly. If they bought the V shape recovery story However this looks unlikely as the Fed's H8 is plunging to new lows http://federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/ (line 9)

You must be doing well, if great to see that you stuck to your system regardless of what other say. You were bombarded daily by guys like me, rosenberg, zero hedge on why this rally is BS but hanged in there and followed your system. I will be the first to say that the system is more imporant...

I just hope they dont tax non-resident aliens. I like amazon :D

I'm curious makloda, do you currently have some macro trades on?If so, could you detail the reasoning behind them? Tks

If the US rule of law doesn't collapse along with the dollar you would be still entitled to dividends in the stock with the worthless currency

I do believe its a deflationary enviroment, due -CPI is negative(commodities are down big yoy) -Labor costs are falling, this is the worst labor market since the 30's. the UR is actually masking the fact that people are dropping out of the labor force because they cant find jobs(if they didnt...

Tks. What about your definition for an M or W, in some cases it seems that you are willing to tolerate quite a bit of difference between the level of the two pivots. I would even say it looks more like a Higher High and Lower Low instead of M or W, whats your criteria?

This is amazing. Gold is up 2.5% almost, silver 5%, stocks 1.5%, oil 2%, dollar down nicely. Yet UST bonds and Fed futures are hanging in there, 30y futures -0.33%, Dec 2010 e$ -0.02%, ZQ mostly flat. Its like the interest rate market is ignoring everyone else and betting on deflation

Pekelo, How do you personally trade this pattern in terms of initial stop loss, profit taking stops, entries? You have done a good job showing the setups, I wonder about the other critical stuff

With regards to the unemployment rate I disagree it will come down in that time period. the 90-91 credit crunch lead to one of the most sluggish job recoveries on record, this time around it looks like it will happen again as the Fed Senion Loan Survey is showing banks arent lending...

So you actually think the Fed will raise rates when the CPI is negative and the core CPI is close to 0-1% and declining? http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=178339 Good luck with that :)

It seems that AU didnt had a technical recession, which shows they are in good shape. UR only 1% above century average, so they are close to 'full employment', their yoy CPI inflation never went negative like most of the developed world. It should be hardly surprising they are raising rates...