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He confirmed what I had argued. That a rise in the monetary base can became money supply not just when the banks lend but also if they buy assets. USTs, GSE mbs, etc Get the excess reserves to $10T and that should end whatever deflation that shows up even in a delevering world...

"Indicators apart from the unemployment rate underscore the weakness of labor markets. The percentage of working-age people with jobs has fallen to a point not seen in a quarter century", the so called employment to population ratio...

Fed Balance sheet announced today Geithner QE is alive and well U.S. Treasury, supplementary financing account $129,956 -$34,989 week-week This seems to be impact the excess reserves in the system. Its now $918,434B up from $854,613B in sep 23 when Geithner decided he was a shadow...

One of the bad things about writing a public journal is that you became reluctant to admit that some of your trades are wrong because you dont want to look like an jackass. Its something I have gotten better with but I still could improve more I just find that the upside of clearing your...

Looks like Jeffrey Lacker found his lost Paxil package http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ad8SpIBLn0Pk

Post more often man, it helps to clear the thinking!

Not a big fan of M3 as it has stuff like large denomination time deposits, those are simply bank bonds disguised as deposits. If bank bonds were to be counted(and I cant find a reason for that) as money supply be quite a bit higher Credit, I'm not sure about that, when someone gets a loan...

The monetary base is not the money supply

Even though deflation could became an issue in 2010 that is very much reversible The Fed's doubling of its balance sheet lead to M1 to grow at almost 60% annual rate for a period. M2 at 25%, even though the financial system was locked up And even though the velocity of M1/M2 declined its...

The Fed purchases also can increase the money supply. When the primary dealers are selling for a client that increases M1 or M2 directly When they are selling their own stock they will increase their excess reserves which they might decide to generate yield with by buying USTs or GSE from a...

Some people seem to take the concept of 'liquidity trap' too far. Yes banks arent lending and people are paying off debt(effectively converting M1/M2 to bank reserves) but the fed does hold certain degree of control over M1 and M2. Back in late 2008 when the fed sent the monetary base soaring M1...

Australia UR is actually falling so their situation is VERY different from the US http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a1CIRaRrL4Ag

Its down but so is supply

Its not the Fed's loan officers, its the banks loan officers. The fed does a survey "Survey of approximately sixty large domestic banks and twenty-four U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks. The Federal Reserve generally conducts the survey quarterly, timing it so that results are...

The consumerless recovery :cool:

Another rise in the stock market and another fall in interest rates. E$ ZQ had a nice day, UST as well

"In the long-run the return of financing GDP cannot be higher than the return of GDP" - Bill Gross

Gartman says gold is rising due a 'disdain for currencies' http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Gartman%20Says%20Gold%20Rising%20on%20%60Disdain%27%20for%20Currencies&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v6_ZvnEZ4qxU.asf That is consistent with my bet that gold will outperform the...

Thats a good one, I wasn't aware the Fed cared about commodities. Nice joke :p

Siegel writes a good article here http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0f4b12dc-b210-11de-a271-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1 I defended him back in Feb or Mar when he said the market was not expensive in a PE basis because financials writedowns were distorting the PE numbers. He was right yet...