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One thing about my view of the US stock market is that the more I'm told I'm wrong for even consider shorting it the more bearish I get, I'm not sure that is good. I do it because it shows that people psychology are getting affected, with the overall bullishness taking over, and people feeling...

One way to put this hussman theory is, if that is correct, technical breakdowns should be FAR more likely to produce large moves in the opposite direction. All the ES daytraders watching key levels might not be aware of the current market composition so they will trade like they always do but...

This Hussman insight gives me the confidence to now try to get short this market through ES in a big way. I, of course, wont counter-trend so I will wait for a key technical level to be broken(A trendline of some kind or MA), get short with a tight stop, anekdoten style. If correct and if I'm...

Hussman posted a VERY interesting letter http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc091011.htm I refer specifically to where he says this market is mostly owned by technicians and the fundamental investors are selling(he doesnt provide much evidence but it seems likely that is right). This was...

The best scene will be the one where he chats a AI machine and the bot calls him fat :p

When the entire US manufacturing output is produced by like 100 US workers, Michael Moore will launch a movie about how bots are the devil and how society is threated by then. It will be named "Dude where is my job?" with a C3PO doing laundry in the cover :p

If being a professional meant that you couldn't be wrong, LEH would still be around

Goldman's deficit projection http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-increases-ten-year-deficit-estimate-105-9-trillion-sees-output-gap-10

Looks like besides the Barron research I pointed out in the past suggesting that profits tend to recover by about 6x GDP growth during recoveries there is now this bloomberg research saying the same "The profit growth forecast for S&P 500 companies by analysts for 2010 is 11 times faster than...

The carry trade liquidity story sounds like bs to me. Who is lending USD so speculators can buy assets abroad?Banks are not lending on a net basis. And as far as I know brokers arent even close to US banks as far as % of credit extension. So it isnt IB is who is fueling an asset boom. USD has...

According to bloomberg so far 30ish or so companies reported Q3 earnings 74% missed revenue estimates 74% beat earnings estimates And the cost cutting aka furniture burning continues...

The fact the countries like Australia and Canada are doing well through employment and even raising interest rates might not be bullish for the US or hawkish for rates at all like some speculate. Since the US is a net importer of commodities if those countries do well, the US trade balance...

I avoid shorting options most of the time. If I do I'm probably long another one at the same time. Actually I dont think I ever shorted an option in my whole life. The way I see it shorting an option is a huge bet, I really need to be confident to be risking a huge loss and if I'm that confident...

I don't know if there is imminent peak oil. Its too tough to understand this business, I tried reading the Oil Drum blog for quite a while and I still cant have a high confidence that stuff is about to happen. Some of then thought the peak was 2005, then 2008 brought a new high in supply...

I disagree with this bash the government no matter what attitude. Its great to have markets 'sort it out', reset to the 'right levels' and let them do 'the work'. The question is which state of mind do you want the market doing that on. Everyone and their mothers was scared as hell back in Q1...

How do you know the market was 'leading' the fed and not just predicting what the fed would do?Its a two way connection here

US is a net importer of commodities, therefore if resource based economies are doing well, it's not necessarily good for the US. Whatever pickup in exports that occurs is offset by a higher import bill which weakens the trade balance and GDP figures

Whats your take and market bet on what will happen?

Interesting system, apparently '"It turns out that a simple portfolio that invests in Buffett's top 10 stock holdings, equal-weighted and rebalanced quarterly, beat the market by 10% a year from 2000 through 2008."' This seems a much better idea than buying BRKA BRKB like the buffett fan's...

"Reading the comments that have come out in the last few weeks, it looks like there is a divide building up in the Federal Open Market Committee about how soon to begin tightening. Fisher: I don’t think that’s correct. I don’t think there’s any division in the FOMC. We will act when...