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Congratulations to ralph, Dow 10K. I covered COF CAL today(ACC yesterday), to keep up with my rule of 'do more of whats working, do less of whats not'(got this one from Gartman). My only short now is PPD(enron type company). Now I will just watch ES and wait for this speculative boom to end then...

"To keep inflation expectations well anchored, all agreed on the importance of the Federal Reserve continuing to communicate that it has the tools and willingness to begin withdrawing monetary policy accommodation at the appropriate time and pace to prevent any persistent increase in inflation."...

Then when risk assets correct to more resonable levels. Will go long multi asset classes on close above the 200MA -20% developed world equities(maybe the Buffett strat, although having to buy WFC will make me puke) -20% EM equities(probably EWZ) -25% commodities(bit overweight to try to...

I antecipate 2010 wont be much different from this year. Will still be big on betting fed staying low -Buying fed futures in the 6-8month from expiration zone and selling when they are in the 3month from expiration. Picking up the historical premium -Holding Dec eurodollar calls -Will short...

Part of the profitability of JPM has to do with the steep yield curve, which is a courtesy of the Fed. So the profitability cant be used as a argument for hiking

One could try to outalpha the ivyportfolio by doing stuff like -Instead of going long government bonds above 200MA, go long Bill Gross bond fund, although I'm not sure that is possible through IB for non-US citizens. He will beat the IEF in all likelyhood -Going long Buffett stocks instead of...

I could structure my networth like this. Instead of keeping cash earning 0% I would be 80% invested in a http://www.theivyportfolio.com/ type strategy, the rest would be in cash for liquidity and buying power. Meaning I will hold multi asset classes ETFs and Buffett stocks trying to earn...

I'm looking forward to being able to get bullish on risk assets. I have no permanent bias with regards to them, I'm not one of those perma bears/US bashers. As soon as a meaninful correction comes I plan to get long and use strategies like -"TheIvyPortfolio" strategy, essentially go long...

Fed's Vice-chairman Don Kohn http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kohn20091013a.htm

Financial headwinds will only abate slowly: Kohn 1:45pm Today1:45pm 10/13/09 Inflation expectations might fall: Kohn 1:45pm Today1:45pm 10/13/09 Deflation is bigger threat than inflation: Kohn 1:45pm Today1:45pm 10/13/09 Recovery will be more gradual than V-shaped: Kohn 1:45pm Today1:45pm...

You just got to take your inner criminal hat off to Tyler at zerohedge, the guy must have broken the world record of distributing copyrighted and private material without getting shutdown or sued Now hes got the Whitney GS sell note...

I nominate praetorian to be the new CFO of Citigroup

Matter of fact this another argument for Fed stays low for longer, their own actions of a quick exit could further hurt the consumer psychology. The Fed needs to be pretty darn sure the consumer is back and healthy in order to put on the breaks(Which is why Jef Lacker belongs to mental not a...

I wonder how that will affect the consumer psychology. UR at 10%+ that doesnt go away, U6-UR spread at records, hours at lows, wages and salaries dropping. Month after month I'm not even counting on this on my bets but its quite possible there will be some japanification of the US consumer, why...

From the nytimes.com article “It’s quite significant, because small businesses generate significant job growth,” said Andrew Tilton, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs. “And small businesses rely more on bank financing, whereas large businesses have the alternative of raising money in...

Probably has to do with valuation more than anything else

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/13/business/smallbusiness/13lending.html?_r=1&ref=business More on the small business credit problems. Since they tend to create most of the jobs, how can the US not have a jobless recovery?

Krugman is also dovish for the next two years http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/11/when-should-the-fed-raise-rates-even-more-wonkish/ However there a many ways to use the Taylor Rule, depending on the inputs(and specially when you use forward data) you can get different outcomes. In...

I'm not sure when this will end, good thing I dont have too. I'm watching the trendline from the March and July lows, it hasn't been tested yet(it came close in the last sell-off). It it breaks after putting some kind of bounce I will get short with a tight short

“I’m the north pole of inflation hawks,” Bullard said. “But we are trying to describe optimal policy, some optimal outcomes in an environment where inflation is below target -- we have an implicit target of 1.5 to 2 percent -- and you have the specter of a Japanese-style outcome, which I...