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The only real 'liquidity' present in US markets is market based liquidity. Corporate/junk bond issuance, IPOs, etc. This is hardly a strong bull point however, because its like saying 'the market should go up because the market is up', this type of liquidity is a state of mind and can come and...

One of the best market timers that I know had problems in the bear market as his historical analysis kept saying buy and the market would get more oversold. Lately shorts have induced a drawdown, he still did quite well but it makes my wonder why since the crisis started things have been 'so...

All countries from Bernanke's sample either stopped the fixing, devalued or imposed exchange controls(effectively ending convertibility between fiat money and gold) it was only a matter of time between then

The article author simply has a different definition of 'gold standard' then Bernanke. Change Bernanke's words to "Countries with central bank fixing the gold price had worse economic performance in the 30's" and the author wont have anywhere to hide, the evidence presented by Bernanke in his...

Looks like Einhorn is non longer a 'true believer' buffettlogist, W Tilson also gave up on the 'forget macro, just buy good companies', Monish Pabrai is also singing this song a bit more(and there is a true believer if I ever saw one). Heres Einhorn speech where he starts by saying he was wrong...

I hope this is right, although I dont think the first one will be more than .25(to avoid disnecessary market disruptions as the first hike will be a big day) but if they do a few .50 .75 a long the way this means they were too late and got desperate to prevent inflation in that case my GE calls...

Nov 2003 beige book, when Greenspan had 1% rates for a 'considerable period' wording still out there http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/Beigebook/2003/20031126/default.htm 'Reports received from the District Banks suggest that the economy continued to expand in October and early November'

I hear you on that. However check back in beige books from the 03-07 period, they usually said stuff like "Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve districts indicated that economic activity continued to expand" So far they havent said that, maybe they will say it tomorrow's book, but so far...

Tks for data. I'm not the No1 fan of anecdotal evidence however I do pay attention to stuff like the Beige Book, they reported stuff like "Reports from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts indicate that economic activity continued to stabilize in July and August. Relative to the last report, Dallas...

WSJ on hiring http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125599093581195087.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENexttoWhatsNewsForth "Another reason not to hire new workers: Many companies already have excess labor on hand. After reducing hours and cutting overtime during the recession, they can easily increase...

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/PIMCO+Spotlight/2009/New+Normal+QA+Gross+El-Erian+Oct+2009.htm Pimco on the new normal. This is the stuff that is not currently priced in financial markets right now even though its public information and whoever bets big on this is likely to make a lot, that is...

2% on new capital coming in. I assume new money from the owners of EWZ will be taxed, this might affect their fee

It looks like his trade and the Julian R one are OTC stuff done through the investment banks. I remember looking at the UST futures options and I could only find liquidity for shorter term options

2% tax. Doesnt apply to FDI, starts tomorrow

This is not right. As far as I'm aware the only way to win at slots is when they are the 'jackpot' types where a certain % of the money gets accumulated overtime and at certain point the machine achieves positive expectancy. If she is 'winning at it' she is lying to you. Sorry to destroy your...

discuss http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1181367

Both the job market and the inflation figures are the worst in decades, without a turn around on that any suggestion of imminent rate hikes seem silly. When the Fed removes for 'an extended period' there will still be a 5-8 month lag till they actually raise(like it happened with 'considerable...

I couldn't find any strong arguments in that article except the part where they suggest inflation expectations are rising. I agree its the biggest risk to the dove trade, it has been going up lately

There is no evidence Summers initiated that trade

The fed balance sheet is forecast to expand to $2.5-$2.7T, this will take months. And a lag between of actions of this magnitude and future hike is likely to be significant, CBs dont usually ease like mad then raise a little later