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Its going to $400

Apparently it doesnt stand to empirical tests. But I'm open to contrary evidence http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr42.pdf --- Moderator's Notes I was very curious how the article author determined that "head and shoulders trading is unprofitable," so I looked at his...

Here's the study showing the momentum exists in the stock market http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=299107 "Underlying the efficient market hypothesis is the notion that if any predictable patterns exist in returns, investors will quickly act to exploit them, until the...

I've been reviewing Victor Niederhoffer arguments against trendfollowing and seeing what Michael Covel had to say and I got to say, he does a very poor job at defending TF. I'm doing this for educational purposes, I consider one of my strengths that I'm not loyal to beliefs, I can change my mind...

Lacy Hunt calling for 1.3% 10y UST http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2009Q2NP.pdf His scenario(Japanification of the US economy) is one that I choose to mainly ignore, if it happens it will be a bonus to my macro bets but I dont count on it(I dont count on a sudden reversal of financial...

A frequent bull point is to say that 50% of the S&P revenues comes from overseas so the market is in better shape than some think going forward. I dont believe thats totally right, I dont have the numbers but a chunk of that 50% comes from Europe and Japan which are in as bad condition as in the...

Any fx broker offering USDBRL pair?

There is a limit of how high it can go of course and people went too far too fast in both asset and debt markets, that was a mistake and people are now correcting that. But there is nothing bad about leverage, its a matter of how much. That is unless you dont believe in capitalism and that...

To show my point look at May 2010 ZQ, even IF you are right and the fed hikes once(two months after ending a massive mortgage buying program which is a downright laughlable proposition), I lose...4bps, if I'm correct I make 30bps If they hike twice, you lose 30bps. This stuff is completly...

Boy, I knew that was coming. Which is exactly why I posted about the study showing that fed futures have been wrong(in easing cycles) ever since they were allowed to be traded, check the pms There is a historical premium to being long, not to mention all the subtle facts I listed in the past...

>we are at about 25 delta of a .25 point >FED raise. I'm 99 delta this wont happen. The fed would not be buying mortgages and saying they will keep rates low for an extended period then raise rates. Dude, they still havent even removed 'extended period', they STILL buying mortgages in the...

Sure, handpick a few bubble years from the 60 year sample I mentioned and use that as evidence

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJYVn5B5q1AY Wow, this is flat out scary. Go ahead buffett, go long that WFC, the future of banking looks great

Debt as a % of GDP is just one measure of leverage and its quite imperfect. That is because it doesnt look at the other side of the balance sheet, assets. They ALSO have gone up a lot from 1950, this provides a cushion for economic agents to be able to support debt(dividends, rents, capital...

I dont see much of anything hawkish in this beige book, and dont get why the front end didnt like it http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/BeigeBook/2009/20091021/default.htm "Reports from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts indicated either stabilization or modest improvements in many sectors...

Wall Street Journal, 4/30/04: “Speculators do know that it's important to get out, however --that's the lesson they took away from the crateringof the dot-com highfliers. And they appear to believe that they will be able to get out before a stock craters, as illustrated by numerous trading...

Jeffrey Lacker speaks today to journalists, no word yet on whether he is currently on or off his meds Beige book is also out 2PM

San Fran Fed predicts low fed funds for a long-time based on a model that predicted the funds rate effectively in the last 2 decades "According to the historical policy rule and FOMC economic forecasts, the funds rate should be near its zero lower bound not just for the next six or...

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/10/unemployment_an.html Some empirical evidence for the cyclical phillips curve. Yes there can be high unemployment with high inflation but thats not the point, the point is the inverse mervin king principle "its not the level is the rate of change". A...

The paper I posted agrees that momentum works(heck even Eugene Fama does), so I bet some ETrs attribute their success to TA but at the end of the day they buy uptrends and sell downtrends and this could be the reason of their success