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So if economic activity would go to 0 overnight the stock market would do nothing. Yeah right

Sorry but you are wrong, I can give a losing moving average scalping system to anyone in the world and they wont make money in the long-run. Think outside the box, discipline actually hurts in this case since the system doesnt make money. An undisciplined guy trading a awful system has a better...

Actually bank net interest margins only improved slighly since the crisis began(on small banks its actually down), even though the fed slashed 500 basis points Page 6 http://www2.fdic.gov/qbp/2009jun/qbp.pdf

Without data on the net $ made or lost by TF funds one cant know for a fact. A gut feeling or just looking at covel's big boys during a certain period is not enough, the compounded % is nice but it doesnt mean the net $ is positive

What you seem to be missing is that GM funds are different from one another because every manager has a certain view of the world. Sometimes they agree on trades, sometimes they dont. If a manager is better than the competition he will bring the money in the long-run even if he goes through bad...

Yes, its based on the historical fact that edges consistently tend to be closed and markets change(small cap outperformance, january effects, easy option/futures arbs in the 70's, dogs of the dow, etc). I'm not making any bold statement, its you who are when you seem to imply that the momentum...

And the way to know if they work at all is through testing, which most people dont do. They just take whatever weird pattern a book tells them it works and trade with it, some of them will suceed by sheer luck and they will be the ones saying that pattern works, while the majority will lose

The chances of TF being arbed away is certainly not zero, it goes up every year in all likelyhood. And this assumes it haven't already which a simple study with the net TF funds $ return would show If the momentum edge goes away, one wont be able to be in the top 5% because there would be no...

I'm not too concerned if I find out that markets are significantly more efficient than I thought. Even if markets were quite efficient Tiger Woods still wins more titles and money than everyone else, so my response would be just 'work harder' The reason I prefer global macro is because it...

I would like to see a study on this, frankly whats to lose by putting some light on this

What if I showed 20 names of fund managers who are bond 'patriots', they usually think long-term UST bonds are cheap, they buy it on leverage through futures, but sometimes they try to time their moves. They have had an oustanding record over the last 30 years, the original group was actually...

The VN statistical tests I mentioned are tests on market prices of all kinds, not on returns from TF funds. He found no evidence of trends that couldn't be explained by randomness, how come you dont explain the flaws of such tests?Maybe because you dont understand those tests?Could it be that...

This is true, one cant always rule out randomness which is why trading at the end of the day is about taking a RISK, a risk that you got fooled by randomness and you are trading something that will lose. You look at the data and take calculated risk you believe are likely to payoff then go with...

I believe you are referring to the paper where he says the Sharpe ratio misses cases where people will make small amounts for a long-time then blow up, while others are swinging a lot but make money over the long-run. Thats a good point but I'm talking about you addressing the statistical tests...

With regards his criticism of big TF funds, he seems to argue that when those funds get big money their systems stop working and they lose(here the TFers tendency to use small samples works against them as John Hendry lost when he got big, so did a few others). The smart money takes the other...

Let me try to summarize his position: "I am well aware that some markets do show trends (in retrospect), and allow back tested systems to work. But merely because it worked back tested, why should the markets be so kind as to allow those who can draw a straight line between two points to make...

I have to say I underestimated VN level of intelligence and understanding, probably due his past failures, frequent arrogance and his connection with a certain ET poster who always seemed more interested in getting attention than anything else But he does makes interesting points, lots of...

Then please post exactly the rules for your pattern so a quant can test it and see if it works

Here's Victor's main points against trendfollowing "I have been the butt of abuse and scorn from the trend followers for many years. One such abusive letter apparently sparked the writer's note. Aside from my other limitations, the trend following followers apparently find my refusal to...

You might want to have it backtested and post the numbers before asking people to believe on it on faith