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I'm assuming of course the horoscope system predicts the ES with sure high level of accuracy its likely not to be random

Check back my posts. Trying to show how TF 'doesnt work' or is inferior to Global Macro wasn't the reason I revised VN points, in fact I was defending that approach a few months back regurgitating the TF arguments, mostly the 'gut feel' one, which is a bad one as a random chart would produce the...

SS and Medicare obligations will not be paid, they cant be paid(its virtually impossible) which means they wont. Rich americans will have benefits cut, probably dramatically

This where the problem is, its not hard to find systems that 'work', the same way its not hard to find a system that works in that random chart and allows you to capture the trend. Its likely you havent tested enough systems. Unless the random price sample is ultra large, there will be always...

Here's another VN argument against TF. There is simply no way to know that TF works by 'experience' or through 'gut feeling' because a randomly generated price chart produces the same kinds of trends that the market does In other words, the folks who watch market action and see trends...

Amazing gold move, its reaching highs against everything http://www.galmarley.com/Chart_pages/currency_charts.htm The FOMC statement tomorrow will be quite dovish(compared to expectations) in my view. There was no mention of changing language in the minutes, so its not going to happen...

The candlestick section of Education of a Speculator pg 390 is very good. I always found it amusing how the candlestick gurus just said "just believe on it, this is a long-japanese tradition, it works", yet almost never there is evidence presented showing it works. Even if there is, if you test...

The share of US jobs that comes from non-bank non-US affiliates is so small its almost meaningless. The data I'm looking at shows 6M jobs from non-bank non-US affiliates, a drop in the bucket compared to the total labor force

Matter of fact if you think about it a rising USD should mean higher risk asset prices, a higher USD leads to a bigger US current account deficit which boosts global exports ex-US I'm of the belief that the US stock market and the US economy is the global leader of everything and other asset...

If thats your opinion then there is no disagreement. I accept that there is a certain market positioning in terms of carry trade taking the high yielders higher than otherwise due all the risk appetite revival. That was not the result of injected liquidity but simply of the correlations and herd...

Jim Grant better be right GDP growth is about to soar in a creditless society, otherwise he will be the one joinning the soup line http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2009/10/third_quarter_growth_not_nearl.cfm "And he notes that 3.5% growth has historically meant only a slow decline...

Here's interesting data on jobs and gdp growth http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/?8dpc In the current path US is in, it looks like the UR will stay high for a long-time OER is also turning down http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CPSHOEQR%3AIND this has major implications for the...

Roubini has this theory that there is a large USD carry trade going on. Its a nice theory but it lacks evidence for it, banks are not lending and given that large brokers such as GS MS became holding companies(and as far as I know they are part of the Fed and FDIC bank statistics), just where is...

This equity sell-off has not affected libor, for Oct 30 0.28063%

Labor costs "Year-on-year comparisons are the lowest in the 27-year history of the series". Inflation Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change 1.3 % Good luck to those who think the fed will change language at the next meeting...

Countering a mystic oracle "I cannot refrain from noting here that there are so many key fibonacci retracement levels - 23.6, 38.0, 50, 61.8 100, 161.8 - that the chances are 50-50 that some high or some low will retrospectively occur within one point" He provides no math on this but I...

My point is GDP is correlated to earnings so it is important to the stock market, if historically the numbers dont show that its due markets antecipating it, but I dont agree its meaningless at all

I've been re-reading the Education of a Speculator by Niederhoffer and I got say its a great book. The first time I read it I had already some prejudices against the guy due his two failures and connections with a banned ET poster. But now that I began to understand his philosophy better. He is...

The FOMC minutes also didnt show any discussion of that kind, so it seems that is almost zero chance they will change language on the next meeting

There are some rumours that the Fed might change the language of the extended period, perhaps to 'some time'. I find this doubtful, the economic data is not supportive. NFP has been weak, inflation has been low, inflation expectations are still quite anchored. The Fed doesnt care about the fx...