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Heres a risk to the 13% UR forecasters http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/13/opinion/13krugman.html If krugman have his way, european style firing restrictions could be coming. If Germany was able to stand the credit crisis with only 0.5% higher unemployment this shows these sorts of...

Some people think a declining dollar might prompt the Fed to act. What they seem to be missing is the Fed's dual mandate and what a declining dollar does, it hurts the price stability aspect but it helps the maximum employment part. The Fed has no obligation in targeting a high offshore...

I didnt give much credibility to the 13% UR calls because I never saw any reasoning or math behind it. Also that is not the consensus forecast nor the stock market forecast(not even the corporate bond market forecast as far as I'm aware), so jumping in these sorts of huge tailish predictions is...

Bernanke just sent the front end of the yield curve flying. GE calls have now more than doubled, I'm not selling it, there is more to come, much more

Where the 12-13% UR forecasters can be wrong is to the extend that the government can pump more stimulus if that looks likely to happen, so can the Fed through more QE purchases

If the Treasury assumption is going to be off, it will not be by much. With 2010 likely starting at 10.3% heading to 11%, maybe it will average 10.6% or something. And they made that back in Q1 with much less information

I would just point out that Mish is incorrect in making fun of the Treasury 10.3% UR forecast. That is an average for 2010, not a end year rate like he thinks. I'm not sure what other mistakes he made

The lastest speculations on the UR http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo111309.pdf http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/11/mish-unemployment-projections-through.html In my view this doesn't necessarily mean the Fed cant raise rates somewhere between now and 2013. I believe...

Paul knows full well that those efforts to 'audit the fed' will just lead to more pressure for easy money policies, exactly the opposite of what he usually recommends. It appears that he is trying to undermine the fed's power even if it is at the cost of price stability and the dollar

"Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton, the authors of Triumph, examined the performance of the 30 percent of companies with the highest dividend yields at the beginning of each year and compared it to the performance of companies that were in the lowest 30 percent of dividend yield. From 1900 through...

"Regrettably, the number of companies paying dividends steadily dwindled from 70 percent in the 1970s to about 20 percent in 2000. U.S. tax policy is partly to blame. Dividends are taxed at the corporate level of 20 percent, and when they reach the investor’s pocket they are taxed again at...

As a side note, I remember that IPOs were having the best period since 2007 in the last few weeks. The breadth of the market is also showing divergence, that has happened in almost every top in the S&P500 since the 70's(although the timing was the tricky part). I'm not shorting yet but just watching

Chap 13 "In fact, declines in IPOs are highly bullish. Figure 13.3 shows the total number of IPOs in each of the past 20 years contrasted with the S&P’s performance. Statistically speaking, the correlation between the change in the number of IPOs in one year and the percentage change in...

Looks like VN just dramatized the PE ratio situation. It is a valid indicator for predicting long-term stock returns(10 years). And thats straight from his own source's mouth Ken Fisher http://faculty.darden.virginia.edu/boebelr/EquityWeb/sessions/Sess13/Bias%20JPM01.pdf If that was not the...

This is probably some kind of permant market edge since the when there are dislocations in the vehicles that exploit market inneficiencies such as hedge funds/investment firms that market should be priced incorrecly leaving a few semi-free lunches for those able to take risk

The thing is the market is not always right in tanking some stocks to low valuations so if you can identify when the market is wrong you can make some big money. So even in the case value doesnt beat growth in the long-run a very good stock picker can beat the averages, its hard to do that in...

I was in a mall when it happened, they were not affected then I took a bus and noticed, traffic lights went down in lots of places, chaos. We still have the olympics though :cool:

One thing I'm sure though is that if someone is a great stock picker he can outperform the averages by doing 'value investing'. Its possible that they tend to go up less than growth in the long-run(if the Value Line study is accurate) but they also tend to be easier to understand, high valuation...

Chap 6 on Ben Graham argues value investing doesnt work. "In 1965, prompted by gains in value stocks and by Sam’s desire to offer clients an alternate rating system, Value Line started selecting the best value stocks in their universe. The firm divided its sample of 1,500 companies into 10...

Calm down nazzdack, chicago still have a shot at 2020 :p