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Feel free to post your thoughts on anything trading related as you are one of the good posters on ET and is quite knowledgable. Yes I have been making good money this year, mostly due my dovish stance regarding fed funds and eurodollars. But I felt that I traded pretty poorly as I made a big...

Guess that helps you with the kool-aid bill :)

Yet another guru who refuses to codify his magic. You say you shared your objective methods on how to trade hammers, that means that you either lectured a bunch people yet provided no evidence on why is that so(And just said 'it works for me') or that you provided TS results of your method(which...

Dude, its 27 pages long and thats on 30 post per page display. I have a life, its a simple pattern, just post the code or TS results in the last 10 years. It cant be that hard

There is some stuff on seasonals in the Jack Schwager futures book, chapter 9

There is a difference between % of the account returns, and % on the networth returns(including homes). While the former is fun to quote in order to get all the attention the latter is what really matters

It appears that there is some evidence that the 70's commodity bull had a M2 element to it The two big price spikes were preceeded by large jumps in M2. This is not good for the commodity bull market story as M2 leads inflation usually with a lag

I'm not worried about their success. I'm afraid a ton of them are either full of it or are lucky. ET poster IronFist did a few tests on the 'Daytrading 2.0' thread guy and found his system was not profitable, anekdoten doesnt understand the basic fundamentals of the market he trades yet claims...

Actually I only need the data from 1960 to today, thats because I sometimes rely on a unusual application of the Bayes theorem that I read about and find it fits very well the trading in the speculative/alchemical way that I use

The ET hero anekdoten was quoted saying many times that rising stock prices are likely to be followed by rising stock prices, that is incorrect almost beyond the shadow of the doubt. Daily changes in the S&P futures are negative correlated to next day changes, matter of fact the author of the...

How come the thing that makes those 'worthless' indicators to be worth something usually can't be tested?This allows that discretionary gurus keep their fame and glory and say 'if you cant make money its because you are not doing it right', meanwhile they refuse to give us specific rules that...

The fact the periods where commodity prices rose more than the Urban CPI could suggest it was preceeded by a period of underinvestment. At least to the extend that the investment failed to antecipate future demand, so even if the investment was resonably high since it did not meet demand at...

This chart provides some decent counter evidence to the commodity bull market story. During the 'inflation' cycles, M2 growth was 3% bigger than during the disinflation ones, this almost alone explains the fact that the Urban CPI growth on inflation cycles was 4% bigger on average. It doesnt...

Another interesting chart

As the chart shows the stock market beats commodity prices over the long-run. Since GDP(incomes) tends to be conneted to the stock market(specially in the long-run), incomes are also likely to beat commodity prices, this represents the long-run commodity disinflation. This is where some...

Heres the sort of commodity cycles that have existed in the past

Sorry buts that incorrect. If you go play blackjack the single most important element that will determine your results is whether you have an edge or not(counting cards correctly), all the money management, discipline, stress management in the world cant make you a winner if you cant count...

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/20091119Volcker-GreenspanLetter.pdf How come the perma 'hike rates' volcker fans are now not paying attention? Dont you think a man who has been at the Fed and had to hear "You're high on the hit parade for lynching" from CONGRESS due tight...

The buyback is probably gone forever, that was one of the reasons that stock was holding up. If their marketing gets shutdown by the government they probably wont be able to enroll much in new people, it will also hurt their ability to sell their services(the revenue is probably headed lower for...

I'm still short. Added a bit at 32.60 today, around 3% of my networth plus the 25 Jan 2010 puts(0.5%). My target frankly is $0, the litigation should cost the company a lot, plus all the negative press will hurt the business. Maybe the government will shutdown a lot of their practices, I cant...