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I heard the best arguments against the front end trade and the most persuasive is the one that inflation expectations will explode due the size of the balance sheet and skepticism over the fed ability to exit. But I happen to believe the fed will just do a bunch of reverse repos and decrease the...

Rosenberg "The U.S. producer price index (PPI) offered up a huge upside surprise today — the headline came in at +1.8% (market was at +0.9% MoM) and the core (excluding the effects of food and energy) was +0.6% (market was at +0.2% MoM). The story was almost exclusively in light trucks where...

John Hussman says stocks are priced to deliver 6% nominal returns in the next decade. Yet he is loaded up in puts, it seems that he runs a options trading firm disguised as a mutual fund http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc091214.htm

Yes, he is just not converting all the speaking fees he is collecting, and perhaps buying a little

Maybe the poker analogy is not the right one for ZQ. But to me it does resemble running a roulette business. In this case my worst possible loss is 50% of my networth, capped by the fact that I trade through a corporation using leverage. The max realistic drawdown should be 10%, in the very...

From Rosenberg "Chart 4 depicts total U.S. bank credit. In the third quarter, it contracted at a record $1 trillion at an annual rate (over 9.0% decline — also a record). The banks have left the business of lending — loans to companies fell $282 billion at an annual rate in Q3) and have...

If they expire at 99.87 I will make about 6-7% of my networth there. Now you tell me if you consider that significant. Furthermore I roll over to other months as time goes on(untill I get hawkish and stop) so the final gains from here will be higher And yes I'm prepared to see a drawdown of...

I trade based on expectancy not on maximazing my emotional return. I'm ready for a 40bps decline, it will hurt but so what The reason I like the FF trade is -its highly likely to be a winner(due the facts I listed) while still having positive expectation -there are no libor issues...

And even if the fed hikes, you lose 13bps, meanwhile if they dont you make more than 20. I see that as a slum dunk

Just run the numbers. ZQ 2010 appears overvalued, the true probability of a hike by Jul is probably 3-10%, yet the contract is pricing in more than that Extended period seems will still be around next week. So the earliest they will take it out will be 27 Jan 2010. There is no meeting in Jul...

Is there a website that has some kind of calculator that does this?It would be very useful

I guess you are not into fed futures. I'm swapped most of the May 2010 for Jul 2010 ones, they usually make money every month like clockwork. And if the 'no 2010 hike' is correct, being long them is like selling overpriced insurance. The R/R is not nice but thats the insurance business

The Tiger Woods scandal will probably affect his line at the next major, so I won't get as good odds to fade him. I might have to skip it till he wins a few times(assuming he doesnt temporarily retires, I dont believe there is much chance he retires forever)

Not me my friend, more like the guys who tested. Like the New York Fed, Victor Niederhoffer(feel free to take shots at his past failures) and others :cool:

There are commonalities. Lets say you meet someone who says he is a .310 hitter in baseball. You say 'ok lets play sometime and you can show me your skills' and he says 'you know what, my arm is kind hurting lately, maybe when I fix it'. What do you think its more likely, he is good at baseball...

I'm sorry I'm not a member of the exclusive 'registered in nov 2008' club. You guys rock :D

Dude, its a matter of bayes theorem. If somebody stole your wallet in your home and there was someone who was arrested in the past recently in your house, the odds that the guy did it are high, perhaps overwhelmingly high in comparison with the other possilities(your wife did it, you kids did...

If no american can do the job, this begs the question, why impose a cap at all? It seems that the government is restricting business output and profits in the name of making xenophobics happy

More like he is a snake oil salesman profiting from poor newbies. I'm willing to bet the guy is a net $ loser in trading. I dont expect you agree with that since you are also in the sales and marketing business And I wouldn't trust any 'trader' that gives seminars travelling around the world...

It appears that the credit issue raised by Martinghoul came from MS in their report Calibrating Credit Growth, pg 20 http://www.scribd.com/doc/23368194/Morgan-Stanley-Research-China-Investment-Perspectives-11-30-09 Apparently they conclude that "Empirical evidence. Updating past...