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Back from vacation. McTeer must have had too much wine at christmas. A hike by Jun?He is claming considerable = extended

I disagree. The fed 'tends' to follow the market but that is not necessarily so. I speak from experience, back in 2008 I had built a ZQ position and then Lehman Brothers went into bankruptcy. One day later it was FOMC day, the market was pricing in 100% chance of a .25 cut plus chances of a .50...

Fed Evans is dovish http://www.cnbc.com/id/34509754 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aYucpBCGWkSQ Although he did made on interesting comment that extended period means 3-4 FOMC meetings. This would be almost the same as 'considerable', so I'm not sure he is correct...

I dont have a strong view on this

I like the CDS idea. IB doesnt have them but even then I'm not wealthy enough to bet in these. However if the next credit crisis will be at the sovereign level I do know that equities will likely fall a lot

Even in the US which seem to be running the largest QE program out there, deficit monetization is not that big. If my numbers are right the fed monetized less than 25% of the deficit and now the program is over. That will absorb a lot of savings. Maybe in the UK is more but still, the developed...

The alternative is to create positive inflation(1-3%) which the BOJ has failed to do. Reflation worked in a 26 countries sample during the great depression and is working now in the US

It seems that an increasing number of countries are going into problems in terms of CDS widening, rating downgrades, auction failures. Soros had a theory back in the 80's that the large US fiscal deficit created by Reagan sucked in world savings precipitating the EM debt crisis of the early...

I guess in 2070 the austrians will proclaim 'Japan adjustment is done, you guys will rock from now on' :D

Will they leave the Euro or will the Euro leave them?

Its actually 'extended period'

It looks like Tiger's marriage is over so he might play the next major

The fact that the Fed is shutting down lots of liquidity facilities in Feb 2010 is hawkish. But it cant be much of a surprise, their usage was just going down and down. However the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility for CRE loans will be used up to Jun 2010 and for all loans will be...

Here's a contrarian indicator http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/17/business/global/17citi.html?_r=1&hp Citi manages to pull the largest equity offering in US history. Thats when you know people have been a little irrational exuberant

Unanimous vote including folks like Charles L. Evans; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Kevin M. Warsh; signing for 'extended period' :D

Other CPIs(that historically were better predictors of inflation trends) show that inflation is quite under control

I'm thinking this cant possibly be a coincidence

The problem is the risk of an unstable libor if/when banks/housing go into problems again. This seems to be less of an issue now that banks are paying back TARP(I believe the money can be re-used by Geithner) and TARP has been extended to Oct 2010 but its still a risk. I only short options...

Frankly I'm not sure I understand the concept of crowded trade very well. What is a crowded trade and how does one measure it?The thing is the fed has already signaled 'extended period', yet the market is pricing in an almost certain hike by Jul 2010, I believe that is mispriced, so whoever is...

Bunning questions to bernanke http://bunning.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Files.View&FileStore_id=3b088771-e7e3-4ade-94a8-bbe9d75cfe15 A few insights on fed policy(in particular that they dont care about gold). There is also this 62." According to the transcript of the June 24-25...