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It seems that some ETrs daytrading fans dont realize that if this guy(stock mean reversion) is legit http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=187730&perpage=30&pagenumber=1 Then anekdoten(stock TF) has a higher chance of being a fraud(in all likelyhood). I'd say the first guy...

Back from a one week beach vacation. I see that the front end has moved a lot here, the stock market is still close to the highs. A 'business' idea that my brother and sister had makes me wonder if the EMH guys arent into something. They are planning to go to Paraguai(country with tax free...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=alMn.vj7PrN8 NY Fed president doesnt agree with hoenig, I'd think he has far more prestigue at the fomc than some new guy who ignores any kind of Taylor framework

Whats wrong is that they seem to not acknowledge the existence of reflexitivty and multiple equibliria so they have advice like 'let the system fail and reset to its fundamentals', not realizing that new fundamentals are created when people are shit scared and the system will keep collapsing to...

Interesntly enough Hoenig voted in favor of the 75bps emergency cut after MLK day in 2008

"The employment-population ratio, at 58.2 percent in December, declined by 0.3 percentage point over the month and by 2.7 percentage points over the year. The number of discouraged workers rose over the year by 287,000, to 929,000 in December (not seasonally adjusted)." The first one is...

Apparently Hoenig wants a rate hike now, the guy will probably vote against every statement for a long-time. This will probably make the trade tougher to hold on to

These guys seem to agree that the new FOMC is not much different on balance from the old one http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/01/06/incoming-fomc-voters-keep-hawk-dove-balance-mostly-intact/ Hoenig though, might dissent as soon as the next meeting

I feel sorry for these 'prodigy' kids, specially the ones slaved by their parents. Read 'Open' by Andre Agassi and you will see what I'm saying

Yes but mostly to buy more stuff further out :cool:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ad9LkGuedLyE&pos=1

Rate hikes and removing 'extended period'?lol, the fed is still thinking of buying more mortgages('a few' members according to the minutes, only 'one' member wanted to decrease, probably Lacker). At this point a no hike in the H1 2010 seems a done deal, like 97%+, and that might be conservative...

What about all the folks who will go broke when these systems stop working

Mortgage companies and brokers(like New Century) were outside the regulatory powers of the Fed

Rogoff does it again. A study on debt levels leading to lower GDP growth and inflation. There seems to be no link between a build up in government debt and inflation in advanced economies(only in emerging ones) in a large sample over many decades, this goes against the weekly cry from John...

Thats great, globalization at work

The GS 2010 outlook http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldmans-ten-questions-2010 The lending part is informative. This is also as it affects core inflation "There is a clear inverse relationship between the rental vacancy rate and the pace of rent inflation. With rental vacancies at a...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=apmj_BGpJjgc "The standard Taylor Rule would have recommended that the Fed raise the rate to a range of 7 percent to 8 percent through the first three quarters of 2008, 'a policy decision that probably would not have garnered much support...

Not looking to increase the bet. Where I want to go all-in, ZQ in the 6-8 month to exp range, there havent been significant declines, so I will just keep riding. I'm back and the front end is soaring again, coincidence?

Yes and its not hard