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Anyone who studied the early 90's credit crunch

ECB's Weber says rate changes will be mainly a function of the inflation outlook which he doesnt see risks high now thus believes rates are at 'appropriate' levels, he says one needs to separate rates from other easing measures taken by the ECB, they plan to decrease those more in the H1...

I'd say the front eurodollar is likely to expire lower rather than higher if it does change. the EFF could go higher towards the deposit rate(and some in the Fed claim it will happen before the first hike, a sign of stabilization) and libor could blowout(surprisingly it didnt change much during...

In this speech ex-fomc voter says the fed will have to decrease the balance sheet first, the speech is not recent http://fora.tv/2009/01/22/Forum_on_the_Economy_with_Professor_Frederic_Mishkin

Apparently if Bernanke is not reappointed, he can still lead the FOMC for a long-time. He would only lose the position of chairman of the board of governors but can still lead the fomc as the fomc chairman is decided inside the fed(usually they just vote for the chairman of the board of...

If the Democrat's loss of the Kennedy senate seat is really a big deal to the point it could swing the vote on health care, Bernanke and possibly a new stimulus package it just goes to show how random and unpredictable the world can be, where the health of a single man can change the course of...

It appears that libor is blowing out a little as the 2010 GE feb future is down 1.5bps

I dont know how much MZM correlates with inflation and with what kind of lag but I do find it interesting that its in a freefall, maybe as a reflection of weak M2 growth. The dove trade did well in 2009 with a stock market in a relentless rise, its looking good again for 2010 and I wonder how...

I recall reading that if Bernanke doesnt get reappointed by congress he will STILL be the chairman after his term expires, in some kind of a temporary basis, but dont quote me on that. In case that is wrong, Bill Dudley or Kohn might step in, those guys are quite dovish right now

I want to stay open minded but I just cant see economic outperformance to a level that the fed hikes. Looking at rents and the econbrowser phillips curve model looks like inflation and core inflation is set to keep going lower, how many months of upticks in inflation will the fed need to...

This should be renamed to PR capex

Maybe the possible sovereign defaults that are looming are not a big deal, IIRC the IMF was recapitalized, no one important will be allowed to fail. In the case of Greece maybe they will be bailed out before they get to the IMF by the EU

The objection you raised is not a problem, if you have a brokerage account outside panama which only you know the password even though you are a minority shareholder its you who are really in control so they can do nothing about it. The actual problem for a US citizen is something called...

The timeframe that is most relevant to readers of this journal(which I have data) is the daily. the correlation between daily changes in S&P500 futures is negative. If someone has intraday correlation numbers I would love to see it

You would be wrong in the case of large cap stocks(such as the S&P500). They are historically mean reverting, a move in a certain direction is more likely to be followed by a move in the opposite direction

Tons of hedge funds blew up with VIX at 80, your point is?

As I said, the dudes 'loving' VIX at 80 could have pretty much been wiped out if they got into the wrong side of the gap back then, lots did, you dont hear from those, only the successful ones from the sample

Furthermore I dont see more leverage as any more riskier than the simple fact that one was trading in late 2008 where no one knew what was going to happen. You might have had a smaller position trading then but your stock could open at $0 or gap up/down huge(as it happened with numerous...

I disagree. If you have an edge the more money you throw at it the more money you will make(assuming you wont move the market while sizing it, if thats the case then I agree) Lots of the whiners around here are like blackjack players who were counting cards betting the table limit(say $50 a...

The ones bitching dont seem to realize you can counter the lack of volatility through increasing your leverage, the two situations are almost equivalent. The difference comes in that when you use leverage to compensate for smaller moves your commission costs as % of your edge makes your overall...