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The problem is that they claim there is a simple edge that wont go away, this goes against the history of markets in which edges tend to routinely dissapear. If Tiger Woods says he is a great golfer and will continue to be Top 50 ranked till he is 60, that is one thing, I would believe that, I...

The GDP number is impressive but the final sales growth was only 2.2%, the FOMC members(being all trained economists) are quite aware there is inventory cycle going on and that the underlying economy is weak(super fiscal and monetary stimulus and 2.2% final sales growth) The employment cost...

If you correctly pick stocks or macro trades before they move in a lot in your favor, by definition you will beat the market(since you are antecipating it), there is no need for 'proof' of that. Its likely asking for proof that someone will get rich if win the lottery Now if you ask where is...

Most people interpret the 'the trend is your friend' as if prices are more likely to follow their recent action, if that is not the case with Covel's gurus then I was incorrect but I would be surprised, Gartman seems to believe that, so does a number of ET TF cheerleaders, VN debunked that myth...

I'm aware of the expectancy argument, in fact I had to point that out to Covel as he was relying in personal attacks to counter Niederhoffer anti TF reasoning. The way to know if there is significant positive expectancy(above the returns of treasuries) is to show the returns of all TF funds...

You might want to re-read Trend Following, I remember of Covel's gurus claiming TF was like flipping a coin 20 times knowing its going heads 11/12 times or something like that. I read that claim all that time, the daytrading 'wizards' of the forum routinely claim its a bad idea to short a rising...

Tell that to the folks who make that claim. Also, I'd say when you have economics working against you, it doesnt really help the expectancy case, now maybe one can overcome bad odds by having these great super TF systems that worked in the past(which some claim will never stop working) but the...

TF claim a uptick/downtick is more likely to be followed by another uptick/downtick. This defies economic theory where higher prices bring about supply and decrease demand and lower prices create demand and decrease supply, if markets werent mean reverting by nature, that is if they were more or...

I plan to buy 'On the Brink' memoir from Paulson in order to learn more from people in government. I also have a background in poker playing(its how I build my trading stake), I would highly recommend to anyone to learn it, for one thing it gets in the habit of trying to figure out what will...

I'm growing increasingly convinced that understading how people in government thinks and their tendencies can provide one with an edge when macro trading even its all public information. The markets acted a bit surprised by Hoenig dissent, some markets participants didnt like that, there was...

Truth or exaggeration? http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aUFMGaqiHYaA&pos=15

The fact that the funds are still here and VN isn't is not significant evidence that TL works or that mean reversion doesnt work. This is the same small sampling type argument michael covel makes in his flawled book 'Trendfollowing'

I was a shareholder of them as a way to play Fed cuts in 2007/2008. then FNM and FRE went into trouble and even though I was 100% right on FOMC policy, I lost money, as NLY became a puppet for GSE fears. I'd say ZQ and GE are a surperior way to play the 'carry trade' than these stocks. I dont...

There are some worries that the Bush tax cuts expiration in 2011 might lead to a double dip recession. I would agree if that were to happen the economy will get hit hard but I dont believe that will happen, at least not fully. Christina Romer and probably Larry Summers would advise Obama a net...

A bank needs a certain amount of liquid assets avaliable always, the QE purchases did not increase that materially, the banks swaped non-loans liquid assets(UST, GSE MBS) for deposits at the Fed. Now, the fed did overvalued the liquid cash type assets by some amount(pimco claims 40bps in the MBS...

As I understand the excess reserves are pilling up on the asset side of the banks balance sheet when they sell their GSE MBS or UST in the market that the Fed is injecting funds(through the primary dealers), its the liability side that defines the bank cost of capital. Margins, it didnt improve...

The 'banks get money at 0%' is a myth, the actual banking spread did not rise much during the Fed slashing of rates, banks actually fund themselves through deposits, CDs, etc

Thats what these guys do, they tank the front end for no reason, giving me opportunity for profit. Using Bill Dudley 6 month 'extended period' interpretation, if the fed removes the language in March(Doesnt seem likely but who knows), the first hike is in August 10 at the earliest, if that...

I'm happy with the fed statement, I dont believe Hoenig is taken very seriously by the other voters, so it appears to me he will dissent all statements this year and not much will happen. But its very interesting how when these guys are not in a fomc meeting, giving speeches or in the fed...

"Voting against the policy action was Thomas M. Hoenig, who believed that economic and financial conditions had changed sufficiently that the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted." The guy didnt mentioned hiking rates...