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This seems quite dovish data http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-q4-productivity-up-62-2010-02-04 "Unit labor costs - a key inflationary signal - fell at an annual rate of 4.4% in the fourth quarter. Real hourly compensation fell 1.9%" Jobless claims up. I'm not sure the Fomc will take out...

Morgan Stanley US macro team is on drugs. They think that inflation(core) will fall in 2010(to 1%) and yet the Fed will both change their outlook for inflation(to the upside by mid-year) and hike the FF rate(3Q). This goes very much against the typical 'wait and see' approach of the Fed...

You will still have to be the beneficiacy owner of the account, so your name will still be tied up to same random company which if your government finds out they will want to know whats its all about

ralph00, what is your current market positioning and how you see the major asset classes perfoming in the next year?

Boy, when I thought I had heard it all. If thats the case this means in the entire history of the world there was no per capita real increase in standards of living

The actual failures with losses to depositors were fewer than these, tons of banks merged during that time

"White House Budget Office Director Peter Orszag said the administration is wary of cutting the deficit too quickly for fear of tipping the economy back into recession." http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZnNekhkN0cY&pos=8

Rogoff on soverign defaults: 'We do not anticipate outright defaults in the largest crisis-hit countries, certainly nothing like the dramatic de facto defaults of the 1930s when the US and Britain abandoned the gold standard.' He also accepts that the IMF makes things different this time 'One...

The unemployed folks could start working on melting coins and selling the metal

The great moderation is over http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm

There might be a Barro style argument that if the government substitutes tax cuts for stimulus spending(keep the deficit stable by letting Bush cuts expire and build brigdes/other stuff with the money) this would hurt GDP(in the long-run) Ok, Summers and co dont agree with the Barro argument so...

Look more deeply in the FY2011 Budget http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2011/assets/econ_analyses.pdf It appears that the net decrease in the fiscal deficit planned by the WH is $300b from 2010($1.5T plus change to $1.2T plus change) to 2011, so this would be the degree of expected...

So you are substituting one conspiracy for another. Furthermore Paulson lied many times while in office, politicians do all the time, now that he is out he is more likely to tell the truth

More on the Obama fiscal policy http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aL975wIYeQjs&pos=1 That article does not mention what is the net tax change of his policy, its clear that there are plenty of tax cuts involved. I doubt that a Kenesyan administration will put a large net tax...

Dude, Paulson has an estimated networth of $700M. I remember Ann Coulter saying she received like $2000 a month from her books. Do you really believe Paulson is going to drop this bomb in order to get more $1 per sale numbers We are talking about Russia, its far more likely there was...

"Since 1970, there have been nine quarters, like the last one, when GDP grew by at least 3 percent and inventories accounted for at least half of that growth. The history of those quarters is hardly a favorable sign of what is in store. Inventory spikes make for blowout quarters. In the nine...

One thing that can be taken out of the reports about that book is that apparently sometimes conspiracy theories are correct. As Paulson said russia contacted china and they wanted coodirnated selling of GSE debt in order to force a bailout

'On the Brink' hits US stores today, I will get the audio version through audible.com when its avaliable

I'm not sure the market will take seriously a claim that 'guys were are only hiking a bit, dont worry about it', more like people will think a new cycle has started and the fed is about to dump $1T of assets in the market

Greenspan says the first hike is always complicated because the market will try to figure out whats is likely to be the entire tightening cycle and price that in. So if the Fed wanted to give a little juice to main street and prenvent some MM funds from going broke, that might turn out to be...