Search results

I fail to see how raising the IOR will prevent the money supply from rising creating a inflationary spiral. Lets say they hike from 0.25 to 1%, lending interest rates should rise by a similar amount(why wouldn't they), maintaining the spread, thus the banks will be exposed to the same amount of...

I disagree with Baum and the people that are scorning the idea that a higher inflation target is silly http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=auwdZNXYb9nM She objects because "it would sacrifice hard-won central bank credibility -- for what? Breathing room in case of another...

He is right when referring to the HF industry as a whole, their nice returns are the result of leverage, you cant have alpha for everyone. When talking about specific HFs, sure one can make massive returns without leverage but not everyone at the same time

That might be VN mistake, the 'irrational' market price might not be so irrational when you take into account that you run that risk of liquidity/solvency problems when trying to take advantage of it

Martinghoul can probably help you on this

Interesting research by MS http://www.businessinsider.com/morgan-stanley-m-magnitude-of-debtflation-ahead-2010-2 Either inflation will rise dramatically or the US will face a debt crisis at some point. I suppose real GDP could start some major boom but that doenst look likely, plus high...

This person familiar with the discussion should lay off the crack, the market didnt even paid attention to this(front end up right now) We had the president of the NYFed Dudley saying lots at the fomc think 'extended period' means at least 6 months, meanwhile the Fed chairman nor any FOMC...

The reason I picked 99.00 dec 2010 was due they being a bit robust in a tightening scenario. If they hike once to 50bps, assuming the libor-ois stays stable(probably a bad assumption given that the OIS will put some risk premium of more hikes), 3m libor would go from 25bps to 50bps. Giving a...

Bernanke said they will hike the discount rate and immediatly mentioned 'this does not mean a different outlook for monetary policy', they said the same thing during the start of the reverse repos tests. Think about why they do this. Its due the fact that markets have big imagination and...

Barclays Capital says US big banks are exposed to the tune of $130b to Greece debt. Now just wait as Goldman says they bought Greece CDS and their actual exposure to Greece is $0

Greenlaw says fed hikes in aug or sep even with 'exceptionaly low' language in http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1409800698&play=1 The market thinks exp low means 0% and the fed knows this, I dont believe there is much a chance they hike and say 'its only once or twice guys, dont worry...

Hendry debating Stiglitz, funny stuff :D http://www.zerohedge.com/article/collapse-euro-insights-joseph-stiglitz-and-hugh-hendry-two-part-bbc-miniseries

The Fed Senior Officer Loan Survey was flatish showing no change(which means the tight standards are still there), bad news, that is unless you work at Morgan Stanley macro team, where they think its good because 2nd derivative credit standard declines had coincided with higher capital markets...

I dont believe that is a big deal, the Fed already shutdown just most of the emergency lending programs, the small spread of discount to fed funds was a done in a emergency basis so its appropriate that is taken out. Yet the front end as usual tanks heavly at any hint of hawkishness

Many people predicted the recession and the financial crisis but it surprised to the downside of even them, that crisis built the seeds to a sovereign debt crisis, so why are some now expecting a soft landing to that? If anything it might surprise to the downside again, specially compared to...

Thats true, its a matter of what the market is paying attention to. Greece was in a debt trouble most of 2009 but the market only started to get worried about it when the agencies downgraded them(dec). Dubai only went into trouble when they announced they might not make payments,etc The thing...

I'm sure there is some correlation, specially at the extremes. But as I understand the FX value of the currency will depend on things like the trade sector(leading to things like the dutch disease), investment opportunities(inflows/outflows through the capital account), purchasing power...

Rogoff and Reinhardt found that banking crisis are usually followed by sovereign debt crisis. The world had the worst banking crises since the 30's, so this sovereign debt crisis is only beginning in all likelyhood(specially given that deficits are still running quite high globally). This...

Former FOMC voter sees no pressure right now to remove 'extended period' http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1407856349&play=1

http://www.ai5000.com/ai5000/20100102#pg11 http://www.assetinternational.com/ai5000/channel/ETERROGATIONS/Nassim_Taleb___continued_from_ai5000_Magazine.html